2021 Sport Clips Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 4th, 3:30PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend this Saturday at Darlington Raceway. All of NASCAR’s top touring series will dance with The Lady in Black this weekend. The Camping World Trucks and Cup Series teams will compete in a double header on Sunday to bring a full day of racing at Darlington which will be highlighted by the historic Southern 500. For Saturday’s Sport Clips Help a Hero 200, Xfinity Series drivers have just 3 races remaining before the start of the Xfinity Series playoffs which means opportunities are running out to secure a place in the Chase.

There have been very few winners in the Xfinity Series this season among the weekly regulars. In fact, just 5 full-time Xfinity Series competitors have tasted victory lane this season with Justin Haley being the most recent winner at Daytona. To make matters worse, the competition will get even tougher on Saturday when Cup Series veterans Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Dillon step down for Xfinity competition. Dillon and Reddick are likely not going to be significant threats for victory as both drivers will be piloting inferior equipment. Reddick will be in the #23 with Our Motorsports while Dillon will be in the #31 with Jordan Anderson Racing. However, Hamlin will be strapping into the #54 car which has been the most dominant car/team throughout the year. Hamlin is a 5-time winner at Darlington Raceway in the Xfinity Series and will justifiably be a heavy favorite once again this week.

Betting Strategy

My betting analysis for Saturday’s Sport Clips VFW Help a Hero 200 is pretty straight-forward which means this will be a relatively brief preview. In essence, I don’t believe this Saturday’s Xfinity Series event will be a great “betting opportunity.” It could be a great outcome if we were to hit value on someone besides Hamlin to earn a victory. However, I think the #54 team will have to run into trouble for that to happen. I don’t see anyone within this field beating Hamlin straight-up this weekend. Furthermore, Hamlin’s opening +120 odds leave little room for opportunity. If somehow Hamlin got to around +150 or higher, I may consider betting on the #54 solely for the victory. At even or juiced value, I would rather stay away and potentially take a few smaller plays on drivers with higher return value. Either option constitutes a conservative risk strategy for futures (win) bets and hopefully we will be able to find some better value once H2H match-ups are released.

Betting Targets

Again, Hamlin is the clear-cut favorite and be wary of enticing odds on the rest of the field; they are not probable outcomes. If Hamlin does run into issues, Justin Allgaier is your best pivot option among the Xfinity Series regulars. Allgaier captured a victory at Darlington in the Steakhouse Elite 200 back in May. Noah Gragson and Daniel Hemric appeared to have the fastest cars in that race but Allgaier came on in the closing laps with exceptional long run-speed along with well executed restarts. Allgaier has shown tremendous long-run speed this year especially on the gritty surfaces that eat up tires. Allgaier beat Martin Truex in the final laps at Atlanta with excellent long-run speed and I believe he has excellent value again this week despite the fact Hamlin is absorbing most of the betting attention.

Possibly my favorite betting target this week revolves around the #9 of Noah Gragson. Despite a tough couple of weeks, Gragson runs best at these low-grip layouts like Homestead, Atlanta, and Darlington. In 4 career starts at Darlington, Gragson has never finished worse than 8th which is an underrated statistic considering how long it takes most drivers to figure out Darlington. I mentioned earlier that Gragson and Hemric were among the two fastest cars back in May. While Hemric deserves a mention, Gragson is the driver that has continuously proved his success at similar layouts. For that reason, he should be a prime target given the correct pairings this week.

As much as I don’t like Brandon Jones, I will mention Jones this week as a potential target. Jones captured his biggest win of his career in this race last year and backed it up with a 3rd place finish in the spring. Stylistically, I don’t see many trends with Jones and Darlington. However, Jones continues to show a knack for getting around the fickle 1.366 mile raceway. Lastly, Brett Moffitt is another driver that deserves the nod of the cap in H2H match-ups. Moffitt has posted 80+ driver ratings in each of his 3 starts at Darlington which includes results from a team (Our Motorsports) that is continuing to improve. In recent weeks, Moffitt has been paired against bottom-tier talents and if that happens again on Saturday; I would consider the #02 a really good betting option with Top 10 potential.

Drivers to Fade

I feel like Austin Cindric is an obvious fade candidate this week but judging by betting odds; he is still among the favorites among the Xfinity Series regulars. However, Cindric has only finished inside the Top 10 just once in 5 career starts at Darlington. The current odds suggest Cindric should be a Top 5 driver and I believe Top 5 would be Cindric’s ceiling this week with an average around 6th-9th. As a result, I would promote fading Cindric against the other top-tier drivers like Allgaier, Gragson, and others. Another bottom-tier fade option includes Brandon Brown. Brown has posted some quality performances in recent weeks which hopefully elevates his stock yet Darlington provides the perfect circumstance to fade Brown’s uptrend. In 6 career starts, Brown’s best finish is 13th and he has never earned a single stage point. Brown’s average range is around 15th-20th at Darlington and I believe that fact provides fade opportunities as well among the less popular drivers.

Draftkings Sport Clips Help a Hero 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 Sport Clips Help a Hero 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +135 (3 units)
Justin Allgaier +850 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +850 (1 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Justin Haley -130 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Harrison Burton -140 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger +125 over Austin Cindric (2 units)