2022 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 15th, 2022. 3:12PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FOX

So far the 2022 season has been completely wild with a new car and a relatively diverse opening schedule that has featured everything from two superspeedway events, to a dirt race, short track racing, and even road course racing. Perhaps the one type of racing that has been missing from the opening schedule has been the intermediate 1.5 mile layouts that historically dominated the Cup Series’ schedule. After all, the 1.5 mile surfaces have traditionally pointed to the teams that have the best horsepower/aerodynamic setups and we typically use those performance trends on the intermediate setups as a baseline for expectations. However, we don’t have a baseline yet with the Next Gen Car and that makes Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway a very intriguing race that will kick off an important 3-week stretch of racing on the 1.5 mile surfaces.

With Atlanta now considered a mini-superspeedway, we only have one comparable race previously this season which occured back at Las Vegas in March. In the Vegas race which was the first race on a 1.5 mile speedway in the Next Gen Car, Alex Bowman emerged the victor though Kyle Busch would say “he backed” into the victory. Bowman was among a pretty large group of drivers (7) that led a minimum of 15 laps and showed early-on that the Next Gen Car would produce parity. More importantly, we did not really see any performance/manufacturer style trends that could lead us to confident performance expectations. It truly appeared that all teams/drivers were working on figuring out the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I will be extremely interested to see if we see better organizational style trends this week to see if there are any teams/organizations that have found more speed with these Next Gen machines. If we can pick out some of these early trends in the performance department, it may be very beneficial for bettors with several 1.5 mile races on the horizon.

Handicapping Notes and Strategy

Ultimately since we are still trying to learn the 1.5 mile performance trends, we must approach this race with some caution. While I believe some trends have already been shown, I also believe we will learn a lot over these next few weeks. For now, we must limit our overall risk and continue to focus on value plays until we build more sharper/reliable angles. With that being said, let’s also address some other important handicapping notes below:

• Ford Manufacturers have appeared to show the most weakness this season on the intermediate layouts
• Kevin Harvick has the best average finish (8.9) among active drivers
• Martin Truex has averaged a 5.9 average finish over the last 10 races though historical trends are downgraded as a result of the Next Gen Car
• Brad Keselowski has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Kansas
• Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers
• Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski all have two (2) wins each at Kansas
• Top tracks, in terms of average finish, for drivers like Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, and Bubba Wallace

Practice Observations

Another reason that Sunday’s AventHealth 400 must be approached with caution surrounds the right-rear tire issues witnessed in practice. Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr were all victims of tire issues. More importantly, the root cause of the tire issues was not well known meaning we could have more “tire” problems on Sunday. As a result, the tire fact definitely negates the confidence level in Sunday’s AventHealth 400 predictions and is something bettors must consider as the main event approaches.

Aside from the tire issues, Christopher Bell was the best driver that emerged from Saturday’s on-track activities. Bell paced the field in practice with the best 5-10 lap averages and then won every session in qualifying for the AventHealth 400. Not only will Bell lead the field to green on Sunday but he appears to have the best overall speed as well. Other drivers that appeared to show all the positive indicators in practice included the likes of Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Larson. All 3 drivers are excellent rim-riders and perhaps the long-run averages directly correlate to the high-lane (against the wall) being the fast lap times once the tires go away.

Other notable observations include impressive practice performances from Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, and Corey LaJoie among the less popular names. I thought the Ford manufacturers struggled as an overall group. Guys like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano struggled significantly compared to pre-race expectations and should be considered victims of the Ford performance. Meanwhile, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher were among the group of drivers that were trending in positive directions on the stopwatch.

Betting Targets

Personally, I thought the Toyotas looked really good during Saturday’s on-track activities. Specifically, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, and Kurt Busch were among the names that looked best in preparation of Sunday’s AventHealth 400. However, I believe the high-line will be important and believe that favors the likes of Bell, Reddick, and Ky. Busch. Those drivers are at the top of my rankings list this week despite the confidence level being lower than normal due to the uncertainty around the Next Gen Car.

Christopher Bell will be a popular pick on Sunday though I think odds-makers have over adjusted to Bell’s dominance on Saturday. Aside from Bell, I believe Reddick and Kurt Busch may provide your best H2H options on Sunday. Both Reddick and Ku. Busch entered the week as mid-tier guys but have merged as low-level tier 1 style candidates for Sunday’s AventHealth 400. Meanwhile, Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Aric Almirola were among the less popular names that I believe should exceed expectations on Sunday and yield value in H2H formats.

Draftkings AdventHealth 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Christopher Bell +750 (.75 units)
Kyle Busch +800 (.75 units)
Tyler Reddick +1000 (.75 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Chris Buescher +130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +280 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)