2022 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 28th, 2022. 6:15PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

Racing fans will get to experience the greatest day in motorsports on Sunday. The early part of Sunday will feature the Monaco Grand Prix in Formula 1 and then all eyes will turn to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the running of the Indy 500. After those two prestigious events, NASCAR’s Cup Series will close out the show under the lights at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the 63rd running of the Coca Cola 600. Needless to say, it will be an action packed Sunday in the world of motorsports and it’s time to discuss the best betting options for NASCAR’s longest race.

For starters, Denny Hamlin won the pole Saturday evening and will lead the field to the green flag tomorrow afternoon. Hamlin edged out Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Christopher Bell in qualifying meaning that the JGR-Toyota alliance will occupy the first two starting rows. Ironically those same 4 drivers finished in the top 5 at the last points-paying race back at Kansas. Therefore, early trends and indicators would point towards the Toyotas being a strong betting option when tomorrow’s green flag waves.

For anyone that may not know, Charlotte Motor Speedway is another 1.5 mile intermediate size speedway. It has steep 24 degree banking and the surface is extremely bumpy which creates a slick racing surface. Drivers that are able to fight through the bumps and keep their foot in the pedal will be the ones making the most speed on Sunday. Therefore, drivers that typically excel in the “loose” race conditions should be given some extra credit this weekend because ultimately Charlotte Motor Speedway has become more difficult, from the driver’s seat, with each passing year.

Betting Strategy

As I have mentioned quite often this year, the Cup Series is still establishing new trends with this Next Gen Car. Not only are we establishing new trends but this Next Gen Car was designed to bring parity to the Cup Series and it has not disappointed with 11 different winners through the opening 13 races. For those reasons, we have to remain somewhat conservative especially with “futures” style bets. I’ve been really focused on H2H bets this weekend at Charlotte despite getting hit numerous times with bad luck in the Trucks and Xfinity series’ races. However, I believe most of my H2H bets have been sharp this week and I believe that will be the best area of attack again for Sunday’s Coca Cola 600.

Practice Notes

Despite the fact that the Toyotas stole the show in qualifying, I was mostly impressed with the Chevrolets during Saturday’s practice in terms of “race speed.” Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott all appeared to have good race speed. However, I think it is important to note that all lap times were extremely close in proximity. Martin Truex Jr led all drivers with the fastest 5 and 10 lap averages. Truex has routinely done well in the marathon style race that is the Coca Cola 600. Truex is tied with Harvick for the most wins (3) among active drivers and two of those have been victories in the 600. Truex has not exactly been on my radar much this year but I think definitely deserves some consideration following the #19 team’s best practice performance of the season.

Other drivers that were trending in the right direction in terms of race speed included guys like Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Kurt Busch. Busch and Blaney are the last two winners in the Cup Series. While Kurt was able to break-through at Kansas, Blaney stole the All-Star Race last week at Texas Motor Speedway. Therefore, both drivers are riding the wave of momentum to go along with their practice observations. On the other end of the spectrum, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Austin Dillon were among some of the names that I thought underperformed in practice. I put Busch and Logano on the list because they are top-tier favorites yet had rather average speed. Harvick and Dillon were completely off the mark which may point to more significant underlying issues.

Betting Targets

Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have been the best drivers at the 1.5 mile speedways this season and I think this Charlotte setup will play into both drivers’ hands on Sunday. Both Larson and Busch are best when driving under low-grip loose conditions and that is exactly what will be needed on Sunday. Despite the mediocre practice from the #18 team, I still have Busch at the top of my list with Larson for the top two favorites going into Sunday. Now there are several drivers that could find their way to the front Sunday evening but I believe Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Denny Hamlin are the sharper options if you want to pursue better value opposite of Larson/Busch among the favorites.

Bowman, Bubba Wallace, and Noah Gragson have emerged as some of my favorite H2H targets for Sunday. At first glance, I know that it is a very diverse group of individuals. Gragson is a bottom-tier driver that is in much better equipment this week with Kaulig Racing. Gragson has made 5 prior starts this year with Beard Motorsports and Kaulig Racing with his best finish coming most recently at Kansas (18th). Gragson is one of those bottom-tier drivers that has legit top 20 upside and that is worthy of betting consideration against other bottom-tier competitors. Meanwhile, Bowman and Wallace are in similar situations. They are being overshadowed by other members of their racing team but have shown sneaky strong speed throughout the weekend and in recent weeks. I feel like Bowman will have the opportunity to potentially steal another one from the favorites. Obviously, Wallace has a lower ceiling but don’t rule out a potential top 10 run if things go their way.

2022 Draftkings Coca Cola 600 Optimal Lineup

2022 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +650 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +800 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +1500 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +1500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman -105 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
Christopher Bell +100 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Noah Gragson +800 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +1400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1800 finishes as Top Toyota (.5 unit)