2022 Cookout Southern 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 4th, 2022. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

The opening race of the playoffs will take place Sunday afternoon with the running of the prestigious Cookout Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. After a wild and dramatic season finale last week at Daytona, the playoff field has been set and 16 drivers will have the opportunity to fight for a championship over the next several weeks. However, each race will hold critical importance towards surviving each round with the parity of the Next Gen Car and that makes Sunday’s Southern 500 an extremely important test for all the championship hopefuls.

Back in May, Joey Logano captured a victory in the GoodYear 400 to earn his first win at Darlington Raceway. Logano led the most laps (107) in that event in what turned out to be a chaotic event with 9 different cautions. Earlier today, Logano backed up his impressive performance in May by winning the Busch Pole Award with a fast lap of 168.251mph for his 2nd pole of the season. Personally, I was questioning if Logano would pose the same type of threat that he did back in the May race due to the struggles of the Ford teams in recent weeks. While those concerns are not necessarily gone, Logano’s fast lap definitely backs the idea that #22 team should be competitive when the green flag waves on Sunday.

For bettors, I would like to make a few claims before we get into expectations and predictions. For starters, we can still leverage historical trends for this weekend’s race despite the fact we are racing in a new car. We just have to observe those historical trends with the narrative that the prior results were more biased to equipment strength. In prior races at Darlington, we have often seen less than a handful of drivers have the speed to compete for the victory. In today’s Next Gen Car, that window is much wider if teams can get the track position at the front of the field. Back in the May race, there were 7 different drivers that led at least 20 laps. Needless to say, bettors should keep in mind that the chances of a driver dominating are relatively slim especially if we have as many cautions as we did back in the spring which will elevate the number of pit stops/restarts.

Darlington Loop Data

I compiled loop data stats for the last 5 races at Darlington because I do believe historical trends are a helpful handicapping tool if you know how to read the data. The things we should keep in mind when reviewing the data below is that 4 out of the 5 races in this data sample were with the old car that heavily favored the top teams/equipment. However if we can identify the guys that exceeded expectations based on the equipment they were piloting, they should point to potential targets in the Next Gen Car.

For example, we see many of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers at the top of our loop data which should not be surprising considering their resumes. However if you look at guys like Austin Dillon (11.4 average finishing position), Erik Jones (7th in laps led and fastest laps), and Tyler Reddick (12.8 average running position), they all have notable data elements despite not being among the elite teams through the majority of the sample. Not surprisingly, all of those drivers ran well back in the spring race at Darlington. Needless to say, just put on a slightly different lens when observing the data below for handicapping reasons.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Darlington Raceway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	118.7	7.8	6.6	12.2	5.6	29	202	489	1497
Denny Hamlin	110.8	9.8	4.8	8.2	6.0	12	102	224	1527
Joey Logano	108.7	8.0	9.0	6.2	7.0	26	52	126	1527
Kyle Larson	104.4	7.3	16.3	13.3	12.0	19	115	186	772
Kevin Harvick	104.2	14.8	6.0	3.8	8.8	35	51	73	1528
Chase Elliott	92.0	12.4	11.4	20.2	9.8	81	73	142	1480
William Byron	91.4	13.0	7.2	13.6	12.2	29	26	24	1360
Kyle Busch	89.4	12.2	13.6	16.0	14.6	29	52	28	1160
Ryan Blaney	84.5	7.2	19.4	18.4	14.6	53	37	17	1526
Tyler Reddick	84.0	13.0	14.2	13.6	12.8	9	46	12	1525
Ross Chastain	80.5	20.8	16.3	19.3	17.0	32	46	37	1212
Erik Jones	79.8	20.4	14.0	16.8	14.8	41	46	30	1392
Christopher Bell	77.7	16.4	9.4	17.0	15.0	1	39	16	1508
Alex Bowman	75.4	12.4	14.0	19.2	15.2	21	29	1	1484
Aric Almirola	74.1	13.2	17.2	16.0	16.4	20	6	0	1239
Austin Dillon	72.6	13.2	20.6	11.4	17.4	-38	8	0	1526
Brad Keselowski	70.5	10.6	19.8	16.0	19.0	-10	41	11	1398
Austin Cindric	66.2	19.0	18.0	18.0	19.0	-13	12	0	293
Chris Buescher	66.0	23.0	17.0	16.6	19.0	-58	21	1	1525
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	62.9	30.2	19.2	17.8	20.8	51	21	0	1523
Chase Briscoe	62.4	19.7	20.3	16.7	18.7	-43	0	0	951
Bubba Wallace	61.3	19.0	20.2	24.6	20.0	-54	11	3	1341
Daniel Suarez	58.9	22.8	21.8	19.6	22.0	-51	7	1	1521
Ty Dillon	58.7	16.0	20.7	19.3	20.7	-40	1	8	864
Cole Custer	57.6	23.8	24.2	23.2	23.2	-35	12	0	1297
Michael McDowell	55.4	17.2	24.2	20.8	24.6	17	18	0	1186
Harrison Burton	55.1	25.0	27.0	14.0	23.0	-17	1	0	293
Justin Haley	51.9	26.7	25.0	18.7	25.3	3	8	0	945
Corey LaJoie	51.5	28.6	24.8	26.6	24.8	-6	1	0	1250
Todd Gilliland	50.4	27.0	31.0	15.0	25.0	-13	3	0	293
J.J. Yeley	38.2	33.0	31.8	27.5	30.5	-14	0	1	1141
Landon Cassill	37.3	33.0	30.0	22.0	29.0	-1	0	0	292
Cody Ware	35.2	32.3	33.3	28.7	31.7	-24	0	2	690
B.J. McLeod	31.9	33.3	33.0	31.8	32.5	-24	0	0	1030

Practice Observations

In today’s practice which occurred early this afternoon, Austin Cindric laid down the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 167.699mph. Granted, I think it is worth noting that the time of tomorrow’s race (late evening) will be much different than today’s practice time meaning the track conditions will be different. With that being said, Martin Truex Jr was among the names that truly impressed in practice. One week after missing the playoffs, Truex had one of his better practices in weeks and led the fastest consecutive 10 and 15 lap categories. Truex is a two-time Darlington winner and one of the best in the series at managing tires. So if the #19 team can find some speed, we know the driver can get it done and today’s practice was a nice indicator that perhaps they have found some speed.

Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric were a couple of other names that looked really strong on the first half of their practice runs. I have mentioned Cindric’s name twice already since he also posted the fastest lap of the entire session. However, bettors should know that Cindric has run well at Darlington throughout his career in the Xfinity Series so it should not be surprising to see he has speed in the Next Gen Car at Darlington either. Other drivers that I thought really stood out in terms of long-run speed included guys like Kyle Larson, Truex, Christopher Bell, and even Bubba Wallace was competitive on the long-run charts.

On the contrary, I thought today’s practice was yet another mediocre to subpar performance from the Ford teams. Aside from Cindric, I thought the majority of the Ford teams were down again on speed and it seemed to show on the long-run times as well. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney had some decent speed but overall as a manufacturer it appears that Ford teams are still behind. I would also add that today’s practice was rather disappointing for guys like Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, and Aric Almirola who were among the guys that I have had on my betting radar this week.

Betting Targets

For betting targets, I’m not exactly married to any betting option for the outright win. I think there are a lot of guys that are capable of winning if they can get the track position at the front of the field. All of the Toyota cars from Joe Gibbs Racing showed a lot of speed in practice which elevates the stock of guys like Truex (2) and Hamlin (4) who have been the best drivers at Darlington in recent years. However, I do believe guys like Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain are capable of being factors as the race progresses. That trio of drivers seems to excel at the low-grip venues and are capable of winning as well.

While we will take some chances at (futures) bets, I remain committed to exploiting value in the form of H2H match-ups. The guys that I like the most in H2H formats includes the likes of Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr, Erik Jones, and Austin Dillon. For Reddick and Truex, I think both drivers are capable of winning Sunday’s Southern 500. Reddick finished runner-up in the spring race and while Truex’s season has not been a success, he is too good at these types of tracks and JGR has too much speed to ignore his current betting value. Meanwhile, Erik Jones and Austin Dillon are some lower tier betting targets that I believe will yield value in H2H formats. Neither Jones or Dillon are going to show up on the practice sheets most weeks but this is the type of venue where they usually find their way to the front in the closing laps. Considering both drivers are nearly outside the top 20 in odds, I think they will produce some match-up opportunities.

*Other drivers also worth of betting consideration in H2H formats include Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Justin Haley

Draftkings Cookout Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 Cookout Southern 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +700 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +900 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1500 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kyle Larson -130 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Corey LaJoie -115 over Todd Gilliland (3 units)
Austin Dillon +100 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Kevin Harvick +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +900 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)