2022 Daytona 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday February 20th, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: FOX

After numerous weeks of preparation, NASCAR will officially usher in the new era of Cup Series racing on Sunday with the 64th running of the Daytona 500. NASCAR’s version of Super Sunday will commence on the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway and will officially be the first points-paying event for the Next Gen car. Though the Next Gen car will produce significant changes at the Cup Series level this year, Daytona Speedweeks has produced a lot of similarities to prior races at Daytona through practices, qualifying, and the duel races. As a result, we feel we are ready to tackle NASCAR’s most prestigious event and kick off the 2022 season with guns blazing!

If you are new to the show, I would advise everyone to read my 2022 NASCARWagers Betting Strategy discussion that I posted nearly a week ago. Bettors should expect a learning curve throughout the first several races of the season as we identify new performance baselines for the Next Gen car. For Sunday’s Great American Race, I will approach this particular race with a normal betting strategy. Obviously, the superspeedway races produce more parity and it could easily be argued that more “luck” is needed than skill for predicting winners at these events. While that may be true to an extent, there is still an art to predicting the drivers that should be upfront towards the end of 500 miles. As always with superspeedway racing, we will put heavy focus on betting value to ensure our ROI compensates the risks for this style of racing. With that being said, let’s get into the analysis.

Next Gen Superspeedway Observations

I was extremely eager to watch Thursday’s Bluegreen Vacation Duels to identify significant changes with superspeedway racing with the new car and rules package. At the end of two duel races, I believe there were a lot of similarities with the racing witnessed at Daytona in recent years. However, the most obvious and significant change appears to be around the fact this Next Gen car produces less front drag resistance which makes it harder for competitors to draw closer at the tailend of packs. In both duel events, we witnessed racing that got extremely spread out as opposed to the large packs of cars that we often associate with Daytona and Talladega. In my personal opinion, this could be a positive for bettors as we migrate ever so slightly away from the lottery style juggling act that is produced by pack racing.

If the pack racing is diminished at least to an extent, bettors can take solace in the fact that performance and talent will likely shine at the front of the field. In terms of performance, the Ford manufactured teams appear to have the edge which is something we have seen for several years at Daytona. While the Chevy team dominated single car qualifying on Wednesday, it was the Ford brigade that won both duel races between RFK Racing teammates Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher. More importantly than the mere victories, the Ford drivers appeared to dominate in the “speed” department in the draft. Ford drivers won both races at Daytona in 2021 with Michael McDowell’s victory in the Daytona 500 and Ryan Blaney’s victory in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

If my readers recall, I consistently pointed out the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing drivers shined at the superspeedway races in 2021 despite taking a significant step back in overall performance. The noses on the Ford machines are materially different from the Toyotas and Chevy teams. Combined with a few other nuances, it definitely appears Ford continues to hold the outright edge. Obviously, that does not mean that Ford drivers are a slam dunk for Sunday’s Daytona 500. However, it does mean that we should likely have put heavier emphasis on the Ford manufacturers and especially around those drivers that are receiving appetizing betting odds.

Daytona Loop Data

Though I believe the Ford drivers have an advantage going into Sunday, you can never count out anyone in this style of racing. If we get a couple of late cautions, the end of this race could still resemble the pack racing that fans have witnessed in recent years. It is just my opinion that it is harder to sustain that style of racing with the Next Gen car, meaning the more green flag laps that are compiled; the more I expect the field to separate into smaller groups. Aside from the drag issue, the cars definitely appear to be more difficult to drive especially when bump drafting. If things do get chaotic with multiple lanes of cars, we should expect more of the “normal” superspeedway threats to emerge at the front of the field.

If that scenario plays out, I like to leverage the loop data results below from the last 5 races at Daytona International Speedway. Everyone knows that Daytona produces volatile racing where one wrong move can wipe out a convoy of drivers. From a betting standpoint, we understand the high risk circumstantial barriers but we can still confidently target drivers that make a habit towards running at the front of the field. After all, survival and being in the right position in the final laps is the biggest battle towards earning a chance to make a run for the Harley J Earl trophy.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Daytona International Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	100.5	13.0	9.0	9.8	10.4	54	25	198	863
Joey Logano	96.0	7.6	6.6	22.8	8.6	30	19	145	846
Chase Elliott	95.9	15.2	11.4	13.0	10.2	54	20	65	856
Kyle Busch	95.6	11.0	5.6	26.0	10.4	-57	9	53	818
Austin Dillon	88.8	15.4	11.6	18.2	13.2	46	18	56	852
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	82.9	16.8	11.2	23.4	13.0	20	18	26	848
Christopher Bell	81.5	14.8	12.3	20.8	13.8	28	29	42	725
Bubba Wallace	81.1	17.4	14.2	11.0	17.8	-1	36	9	863
William Byron	80.3	5.2	24.8	21.4	19.6	43	13	36	686
Ryan Blaney	80.0	13.2	11.8	15.0	15.2	12	5	13	670
Brad Keselowski	79.2	10.0	13.6	26.4	15.4	-38	19	31	787
Kyle Larson	78.1	8.8	16.3	15.3	16.8	26	16	1	699
Alex Bowman	76.8	7.0	22.8	19.0	18.0	-28	11	5	671
Ty Dillon	76.0	25.3	11.3	18.7	17.3	17	19	0	488
Kevin Harvick	76.0	6.8	18.4	14.8	15.8	-73	14	39	862
Martin Truex Jr	75.4	11.0	14.4	22.6	17.6	-12	40	27	832
Kurt Busch	72.4	13.4	22.2	22.4	19.0	17	33	9	822
Chris Buescher	72.0	18.6	18.2	12.4	19.0	6	6	9	679
Tyler Reddick	71.9	21.5	19.3	22.5	19.3	41	17	1	710
Michael McDowell	71.0	23.0	23.6	16.4	21.8	80	26	4	723
Cole Custer	68.7	20.0	17.8	25.8	18.3	-71	13	1	696
Chase Briscoe	68.5	23.0	19.0	20.5	20.5	-9	12	0	361
Corey LaJoie	67.7	28.0	18.0	12.2	21.4	42	17	2	863
Ross Chastain	67.0	31.4	18.4	19.4	21.0	53	16	14	851
Justin Haley	65.1	31.7	29.0	7.0	26.0	-17	11	1	501
Erik Jones	60.7	20.6	27.0	25.4	24.4	-50	20	15	662
Landon Cassill	60.1	36.0	19.5	24.0	25.0	-30	5	0	273
Daniel Suarez	59.5	21.5	17.8	30.5	24.3	33	10	19	419
David Ragan	57.7	25.0	24.7	26.3	26.0	17	11	0	308
Aric Almirola	57.0	8.6	26.0	19.2	23.4	-25	14	7	674
Kaz Grala	54.5	39.0	23.5	32.0	25.0	11	9	10	271
B.J. McLeod	44.1	35.3	31.8	24.8	30.3	-30	3	0	589
Timmy Hill	43.9	33.5	35.0	25.5	30.5	47	5	0	361

With those thoughts in mind, we can clearly see a distinction above from the analytics that supports the fact that Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano may be your best Daytona talents. Hamlin has already secured 3 Daytona 500 victories which is the most among active Cup Series drivers. In fact, Hamlin’s 3 victories in the Great American Race ranks in a tie for 3rd all-time. Joey Logano was in position to win duel #2 on Thursday night before a last lap wreck while trying to protect the lead.

Even with the disappointing finish, Logano is among the Cup Series’ top superspeedway drivers and is a former 2015 Daytona 500 Champion. Logano, teammate Ryan Blaney, and perhaps Brad Keselowski all deserve some added votes of confidence this week. Blaney has become one of the Cup Series’ best on the superspeedways and Keselowski leads all active drivers with 7 victories between Daytona and Talladega. While most of Keselowski’s success has resided at Talladega, he is still obviously one of those guys that you can never count out.

In terms of the rest of the loop data metrics from the last 5 races at Daytona, bettors should take note of strong trends from the likes of Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch. Busch is still seeking his 1st Daytona 500 victory despite accomplishing nearly everything the sport has to offer. Meanwhile, less popular drivers like Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Bubba Wallace have produced noteworthy trends at Daytona in recent years. Stenhouse and Wallace are personally not ideal targets for me personally due to the high risk potential of DNF’s in these races. However in the races they have stayed out of trouble, they have performed very well at the superspeedway venues and that is all you need for a one time winner to cash at valuable odds.

Fades and Targets

For betting or even fantasy racing line-ups, I would like to provide a core list of drivers that I’m equally targeting and fading going into Sunday’s main event. Keep in mind, this style of racing provokes volatile results which is why I rarely place H2H bets or complete many fantasy lineups for the events at Daytona and Talladega. Again one big accident can completely destroy a betting card even if you have it handicapped perfectly. At least for fantasy purposes, bettors can put heavier emphasis on the drivers starting towards the rear that may produce higher ceilings and lower floors because of place differential. However, outright bettors do not have that same luxury.

Fades: My top fades going into Sunday surround the likes of Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. My reasons for those 3 drivers are pretty simple. Despite being the best driver in the sport, Kyle Larson is pretty bad at superspeedway racing. In fact, Larson has never recorded a top 5 finish in any career start at Daytona or Talladega. Since the Chevys did not look nearly as strong as expected in the draft, there may be some value fading the pole sitter. In similar fashion, Martin Truex has never been a strong superspeedway threat either. In fact, Truex has finished 25th or worse in 5 of the last 6 races at Daytona. Furthermore, my reasons for fading Truex go beyond the numbers. I believe this style of racing will force drivers to be aggressive to keep pace in instances of long green runs.

Truex is notoriously a non-aggressive driver and I don’t think that bodes well for these new aerodynamics. Lastly, I am also fading Ricky Stenhouse Jr with confidence. Stenhouse has always been a checkers or wreckers type of driver. For Sunday’s Great American Race, Stenhouse will be without any teammate for the first time with JTG Daugherty Racing. Not only did the Chevys not run very well in the duels but Stenhouse will be faced with the stiff challenge of trying to find help. Stenhouse does not have many friends when it comes to superspeedway racing and my bet is that he will try to force the issue at some point.

Targets: In terms of betting targets, I believe we have to label targets in different categories or thresholds. Remember, we must keep a strong grasp on value and ROI when compiling lineups for the superspeedway events. Therefore, I would like to touch on targets in the categories of favorites, intermediates, and long shots. For the favorites, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney stand out as clear front-runners. Both drivers have emerged as the best talents in superspeedway racing in recent years. Logano nearly won his 2nd straight duel on Thursday and Blaney is the most recent winner at Daytona. Since the Fords have a clear edge and teamwork will be a factor, it would not be surprising to see both drivers control the front of the field. *Notable favorite pivot: Chase Elliott

In the realm of intermediates, I am gravitating towards guys like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. Neither driver would normally be listed in the “intermediate” category at traditional ovals. However, Busch is receiving 15 to 1 odds or better for the 500. Meanwhile, Harvick is listed as high as 20 to 1 or better. Both drivers provide considerable upside in that value range. Personally, I have a gut feeling this could be the year Rowdy finally wins the 500. Busch has the best average running position (5.6) of all drivers over the last 5 races at Daytona and has historically put himself in contention despite disastrous luck.

For the dark horses and long shots, I have several options to consider that warrant betting consideration. As a reminder, bettors should sprinkle long shots into their lineups. Not only does it bring value but if you can downsize the wagers to bring more probabilistic advantage as well. The more drivers we have on our betting card = the higher chance we have of winning. The art is managing the risk and value in between those bets. With that being said, Harrison Burton is a guy that I called out in our early Daytona preview at 80-1 odds that deserves attention and I stand by that fact going into Sunday. Burton’s odds have been slashed but he can still be found at north of 50-1 odds which is excellent value. Justin Haley at 40-1 odds from the same preview remains on my radar despite a relatively poor speedweeks.

Erik Jones is a former Daytona winner who has shown solid speed throughout the week and receiving excellent value at 60 to 1 odds. Lastly if you are looking for true lottery style picks in terms of betting odds, Ty Dillon and Todd Gilliland should be at the top of the list. Both drivers/cars have been fast throughout the week and are completely being disrespected in terms of betting odds. Gilliland finished the 3rd practice with one of the top speeds in a big group of Fords and I think he is one of those guys that could probably maintain position at the front of the field if he can get the track position. I expect it to be more difficult for the dark horses this week but still not out of the realm of possibility either.

Draftkings Optimal Lineup for the Daytona 500

Bet the Daytona 500 with BetOnline

2022 Daytona 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1000 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1500 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2000 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +3000 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +6000 (.25 unit)
Todd Gilliland +15000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -105 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Cole Custer +1500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +1500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ty Dillon +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +2000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)