2022 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 5th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway
TV: FOX

For the first time in series history, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway when the green flag waves for the Enjoy Illinois 300. Both the Trucks and Xfinity Series has competed at the 1.250 oval that resides just outside of St. Louis in Madison, Illinois. However, this will be the first time the Cup Series has competed at Gateway and I am extremely excited to witness tomorrow’s inaugural event. Gateway has traditionally produced great racing in the lower series and I would expect nothing less from tomorrow’s Enjoy Illinois 300.

World Wide Technology Raceway, formerly known as Gateway Motorsports Park, is a 1.250 mile egg-shaped oval with extremely flat banking. Cup Series drivers will be shifting in the corners, at least in turns 1-2, which will provide an extra challenge to the drivers. Throughout the weekend, Cup Series drivers have referenced that the racing at Gateway feels very similar to Phoenix and I think that is a very good comparison. In fact, Chase Briscoe scored his 1st career victory at Phoenix back in March and also won the pole for tomorrow’s Enjoy Illinois 300 which perhaps proves the point that both tracks are comparable.

Therefore throughout this handicapping preview, I may make some references to Phoenix stats or even the prior race back in March. Not only are both tracks very flat but are among the few tracks visited this season which will require shifting in the turns. Therefore, I believe that the Phoenix narrative is very noteworthy as Sunday’s event approaches. In fact, I would consider most flat-surfaces relative for handicapping purposes as drivers will need to roll the corners and protect their tire wire throughout the course of 300 miles. With that being stated, let’s jump into our predictions for Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

In Friday’s practice, it was the Team Penske brigade that really flexed their muscles. In fact, all 3 Team Penske drivers captured the top 3 fast laps in practice with Joey Logano leading the way with a lap of 136.753mph. Both Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric were in close proximity on an afternoon where the Ford teams displayed their best speed of the season. Not only did the Team Penske drivers capture the top 3 single lap times but there were also the top 3 drivers in the 10 lap average category as well. Therefore, we should expect the Team Penske cars to be strong if they can back up their performances on Friday.

Outside of the Team Penske cars, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, and Tyler Reddick were among the other names that were also fast in practice. Personally, I thought Busch and Reddick were the best in terms of consistency but I would not look past the likes of Chastain and Briscoe based on their prior performances this year, including the results from Phoenix. Less popular names that were also showing speed on Friday included the likes of Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola. Both Busch and Almirola appeared to be trending above where most would expect and should be on everyone’s radar for H2H purposes.

On the other end of the spectrum, guys like William Byron, Alex Bowman, and Martin Truex Jr were guys that appeared to be on the struggle bus. Truex is traditionally a very good driver on the flat surfaces especially on the long-runs so I would not immediately consider the #19 a fade option. However, the #19 was definitely the slowest of all the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. Meanwhile, Byron and Bowman appeared to be “off” in terms of speed. It’s worth noting that none of the Hendrick Motorsports cars looked great but clearly the worst of the group belonged to the #24 and #48 teams.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, Chase Briscoe and Joey Logano have clearly looked like the two best drivers/cars throughout the weekend. Logano is a two-time winner at Phoenix and Briscoe is the most recent winner which proves that both drivers deserve considerable betting attention on Sunday. If we combine the narratives from practice and Phoenix, I also believe Kurt Busch, Tyler Reddick, and Aric Almirola are the sharp H2H options based on current betting odds and match-up pairings. Arguments could be made for Kevin Harvick and Ross Chastain but I believe their match-ups/odds are reasonably priced.

Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch are likely the sharper picks for H2H options. Almirola is actually a very underrated driver on the flat surfaces and if we also take into consideration that the Ford teams have shown some extra speed this weekend, there is legitimate incentive towards backing Almirola for H2H or prop bet purposes. For Kurt Busch, I just feel like the 23XI Racing cars are getting very close to their Joe Gibbs Racing counterparts. Busch is obviously the better driver of the 23XI Racing duo compared to Bubba Wallace but don’t be surprised if both drivers have solid afternoons. Personally, I just like the momentum of the #45 team which makes me believe they can battle at the front of the field.

2022 Draftkings Enjoy Illinois 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +800 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1000 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1500 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1500 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kevin Harvick -130 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Kurt Busch -115 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Kyle Busch -110 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Starting grid position of winner under 15.5 -120 (2 units)
Chase Elliott +300 wins Group B (Blaney, Byron, and Truex) (1 unit)
Daniel Suarez +900 wins Group D (Briscoe, Ku. Busch, and Harvick) (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch is top Toyota, Kevin Harvick is top Ford, and Chase Elliott is top Chevrolet +25000 (.25 unit)