2022 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 21st, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: USA

Just two races remain in NASCAR’s version of the regular season for the Cup Series and both races will present potential wild card opportunities for drivers looking to capitalize on playoff opportunities. On Sunday, the Cup Series will go road course racing for the 5th time this season when the green flag waves for the Go Bowling at the Glen. With all road course racing, the elements of pit strategy and intense restarts will play an important factor in deciding the outcome as well as potentially determining the postseason fate of some drivers. Therefore, an intriguing event awaits at the historic Watkins Glen International.

Earlier today, current points leader Chase Elliott won the pole for Sunday’s main event with a lap of 125.147mph. Elliott will get to lead the field to green alongside teammate and the defending winner of the Go Bowling at the Glen in Kyle Larson. Not only is Larson the defending winner at Watkins Glen but Elliott won the prior two events at the Glen from 2018-2019. Therefore, the fact that both Elliott and Larson have secured the top two starting spots should send signs of worry among those drivers looking for an opportunity to steal a road course victory; which by the way, road course venues have produced 3 first time career winners already this season!

Potentially another area of focus worth mentioning surrounds the points battle between Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr who are fighting for the final spot in the playoffs which would only matter if we do not have another first-time winner this season. Truex is a former Watkins Glen winner (2017) and trails Ryan Blaney by 26 points for the final position. While Daytona could still shake things up, this Sunday’s return to Watkins Glen is Truex’s best opportunity to lock-in the final playoff spot given he has never won on a superspeedway. The problem with that possibility and the hopes of Truex returning to victory lane also intertwines with the fact that the Toyotas have not performed well this season at the road courses which was evident again today with Kyle Busch (qualified 10th) being the only Toyota in the top 15 positions in qualifying.

Road Course Loop Data

In effort to show some of the trends that have emerged this year on the road course like I just talked about with the Toyotas, I have compiled loop data stats from all the prior road course events this season. Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen will officially be the 5th road course event of the season therefore the data below provides some promising baselines for our expectations going into Sunday. As you will see below, Tyler Reddick has taken over the top spot with an impressive 116.4 average rating courtesy of his back to back road course wins at Road America and Indianapolis. With Reddick, there are 4 other drivers that have compiled triple digit average ratings which includes Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, and Daniel Suarez.

In my opinion, Cindric’s name is the biggest surprise on that list. All others beside Elliott have won on the road courses this season and Elliott may just be the best road course driver of all-time. Cindric on the other hand has not exactly had the breakout road course performance that some of those other drivers have had this season. Instead, the rookie has capitalized on his finishes with the best average finishing position (5.5) of the season among all drivers. Therefore, Cindric is one of those drivers that bettors should keep on their radar this week especially for H2H purposes.

Other notable trends that are worth mentioning again is the performance of the Toyota powered drivers. Christopher Bell (12th) and Martin Truex Jr (15th) are the highest performing Toyotas in our loop data stats. Now obviously this view does not mean that any of the Toyotas have a limited ceiling this week but it definitely shows the performance struggles from those teams which has become more obvious with each road course event. Lastly, I would just throw out quick mentions to the solid stats from both Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell who are among the top drivers on this list. The transition to the Next Gen Car has provided better opportunities for both drivers to showcase their road course skills and it has been evident throughout the season.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Tyler Reddick	116.4	3.5	9.8	10.5	8.3	-81	31	56	314
Chase Elliott	110.0	5.8	9.8	7.5	8.3	31	45	62	327
Austin Cindric	105.5	10.5	19.8	5.5	10.5	-37	11	11	327
Ross Chastain	105.1	14.0	9.3	9.8	9.3	-26	21	31	327
Daniel Suarez	100.7	9.5	13.8	14.5	11.3	-62	22	62	327
Ryan Blaney	97.9	10.0	5.5	12.3	9.8	0	7	22	327
Chris Buescher	93.2	12.0	17.5	9.8	15.0	-76	25	4	327
Michael McDowell	92.7	11.0	14.0	8.0	11.5	-73	2	0	327
Kyle Larson	85.2	9.8	19.8	20.5	16.0	6	18	26	298
AJ Allmendinger	83.9	19.3	18.3	17.0	14.3	-37	6	5	326
Alex Bowman	82.0	15.0	18.8	15.5	15.8	-39	6	0	306
Christopher Bell	81.8	14.5	15.3	15.0	17.0	-73	14	17	327
William Byron	80.7	24.0	22.5	17.0	16.3	-4	6	0	320
Chase Briscoe	79.0	8.5	13.8	20.0	13.0	-20	3	11	327
Martin Truex Jr	78.6	21.3	17.0	16.8	14.8	-70	3	0	327
Kevin Harvick	77.8	21.8	15.5	14.5	17.3	-79	5	0	305
Cole Custer	76.1	10.8	21.0	17.0	15.5	-91	2	0	327
Denny Hamlin	71.7	11.8	19.0	20.0	16.8	-48	3	4	327
Austin Dillon	68.0	20.8	19.5	20.5	17.8	-13	0	0	324
Joey Logano	67.1	9.5	11.8	20.3	17.5	111	1	6	327
Brad Keselowski	66.0	17.8	22.0	19.3	21.5	11	10	3	323
Kyle Busch	62.2	12.5	23.8	24.5	18.8	50	6	0	327
Todd Gilliland	58.4	23.5	19.5	17.3	23.0	14	1	4	327
Joey Hand	58.1	22.8	23.5	26.3	22.5	-27	1	2	317
Justin Haley	57.7	19.5	17.0	17.5	23.3	113	3	0	327
Harrison Burton	57.5	20.3	16.0	17.5	21.8	108	0	1	327
Erik Jones	53.9	31.3	11.3	18.0	22.8	86	0	0	327
Ty Dillon	52.3	31.8	19.0	24.3	23.0	-14	0	0	301
Bubba Wallace	49.6	23.5	17.3	28.5	25.0	25	0	0	193
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	49.0	32.8	24.5	23.5	25.0	72	0	0	310
Aric Almirola	46.4	21.0	24.8	24.8	27.0	43	2	0	265
Josh Bilicki	37.6	30.3	27.5	27.3	28.8	101	0	0	317
Corey LaJoie	37.2	32.0	27.0	30.5	30.0	-33	2	0	301
Cody Ware	34.6	33.8	31.5	28.8	30.5	82	1	0	323
Loris Hezemans	26.7	35.3	36.3	36.0	35.3	-28	0	0	105

Practice Observations

I am going to give some observations from practice earlier Saturday but can I just vent for one second? These brief practice sessions that are divided into two groups provide minimal value for bettors or race teams to try to gauge their long-run setups. Since NASCAR divides the groups, it’s even difficult to gauge the overall observations because the track conditions are likely different from group to group. With that being said, I will say that Kyle Larson showed some really good fire off speed. Larson led both the 5 and 10 lap average categories as he seeks a 2nd straight victory at the Glen. Teammates William Byron and Chase Elliott were both close on the same fire off speed but I had trouble gauging their long-run speed. For what it’s worth, I thought Byron drove an excellent race in today’s Xfinity Series race at the Glen and I am boosting his stock following that performance and today’s practice results.

With the Hendrick Motorsports trio, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, and Daniel Suarez looked fairly good on short-run speed as well. Other drivers that caught my eye that most would consider bottom-tier talents were the likes of Todd Gilliland and Joey Hand which perhaps are worth fantasy consideration. On the other side of the spectrum, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and basically all of the Toyotas again were not showing the quality of speed that would convince me they would contend for the victory on Sunday. Obviously, strategy could come into play and give those guys better chances but if we are talking strictly speed, none of those drivers really showed anything impressive in terms of lap times.

Betting Targets

Though Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson captured the top two starting spots, Larson was the driver that appeared to have race winning speed. Granted, I will say Watkins Glen is one of Elliott’s best road course tracks so I am not going to disregard his chances by any means. With those facts in mind, I’m not necessarily sold on Larson or Elliott simply because we have not seen the dominance from those drivers with this new car to justify their current betting odds. Tyler Reddick will once again be a viable pivot option for the top favorites of Elliott/Larson. Reddick is currently listed as the 3rd overall favorite so you are not getting a ton of extra value but it’s also hard to ignore how strong Reddick has emerged as a road course threat throughout this season.

For sharp betting targets, I am all over William Byron, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, and Ty Gibbs. I really believe that Byron and Logano are dark horses for the outright victory especially if they play the strategy game correctly. Byron is probably my favorite betting pick of the weekend. I think he has looked great all weekend in both series and has finished 8th or better in 2 of his 3 Cup Series starts at the Glen. Suarez and Gibbs are probably better suited for H2H and/or prop bet options. After getting his 1st career victory at Sonoma, Suarez has been solid throughout the season at the road courses and will get the opportunity to use some of his Watkins Glen experience. Gibbs actually wrecked in practice today but he remains high on my radar. The 19 year old, who continues to fill-in for Kurt Busch, has shown improvement in the Next Gen Car on a weekly basis and he remains a raw road course talent.

Draftkings Go Bowling at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2022 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +400 (1 unit)
Daniel Suarez +1400 (.5 unit)
William Byron +2000 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Michael McDowell (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -115 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Joey Logano +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1000 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)