2022 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 6th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

After a thrilling race last week in Fontana, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns on Sunday for the running of the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Last week, the Next Gen Car received a lot of praise for the parity and competitiveness that was on display at Auto Club Speedway. Not only did we see several less popular teams have terrific speed but the racing action was fulfilling. However, Auto Club Speedway typically puts on a strong race with the high speeds and high tire wear surface. Perhaps tomorrow’s Pennzoil 400 will be another opportunity to gauge the performance of the Next Gen Car and provide a foundation for expectations throughout the remainder of the year.

Earlier today, Christopher Bell earned the Busch Pole Award for the Pennzoil 400 by besting the field with a lap of 182.673mph in qualifying. Bell was part of a complexing mix of cars that qualified in the top 10 positions which consisted of 2 cars from Joe Gibbs Racing, 2 cars from Hendrick Motorsports, 2 cars from Richard Childress Racing, 2 cars from Team Penske, and 1 car from both Stewart-Haas Racing and JTG Daugherty Racing. Needless to say, the Next Gen Car is providing the “parity” that NASCAR envisioned during its lengthy development. For tomorrow’s 400 miles in Sin City, we will discuss a few expectations but I would not rule out any possibility on Sunday as we are still well within the learning curve of this new era in NASCAR’s top division.

Practice Observations

Despite the obvious increase in parity with the new car, I am still convinced that Chevrolet teams have the slightest edge over the competition. In last week’s Auto Club Speedway recap, I mentioned that several of the “surprises” from Fontana were in the form of Chevrolet powered machines from Richard Childress Racing and Trackhouse Racing. Both organizations use ECR engines and engine power may be more important than ever as teams have lost a great deal of ingenuity with chassis designs. As a result, I do believe the Chevrolet teams have some advantage in the horsepower department which was on display in practices earlier today.

Most notably the Hendrick Motorsports cars of William Byron and Kyle Larson appeared to be the class of the field in practice. We could probably list Kyle Larson as a favorite/target for the next 34 weekends and be right the vast majority of the time. While the new car has brought parity, Larson still manages to get the best speed from his machine. In all reality, Larson’s lap times were in a class of their own. With that being said, I do believe we will see more drafting effects on Sunday which could provide another equalizing component. Behind the Hendrick Motorsports cars which mainly consisted of the #24 and #5, I thought Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney were both sneaky fast in practice. Obviously, the secret is out with Bell capturing the pole but don’t overlook Blaney as another option on Sunday as well.

There were several drivers that were within close proximity of the fast times on Saturday which is why I would not rule out any surprises on Sunday. With that being said, the drivers that stood out to me in terms of preconceptions included the likes of Tyler Reddick and Daniel Hemric. Reddick nearly pulled out a surprising victory at Fontana before losing a tire in the final laps. However, Reddick is one of those drivers that is likely going to take a big step forward in 2022. He is one of the best raw talents in the field and no longer has the equipment disadvantage that he experienced in the first two years of his Cup Series career. For Hemric, he is on the heels of an impressive 9th place finish at Fontana and has shown solid speed for the 2nd straight week with Kaulig Racing.

Betting Targets

I am not leveraging loop data this week based on historical narratives. The surface at Las Vegas has changed significantly over the last few seasons and with a complete new car this week; I just don’t see the value that historical trends would provide. As a result, my betting targets this week are solely based around my perceived expectations of this new car and my own angles. While Kyle Larson is the deserving favorite yet again, I am really focusing on the likes of William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney as my betting targets. Blaney is emerging as one of the top drivers in the sport so he may not be so much of a sharp play but just a continuation for current performance. Meanwhile, Byron and Reddick are drivers that I have pegged to benefit from this new package and fall into the engine strength that I am monitoring.

From a fantasy perspective, Kyle Busch will be an obvious choice on Sunday simply based on his starting spot. Busch wrecked the #18 in practice and did not qualify as the team prepared the backup car. As a result, Busch will start shotgun on the field. While I am staying away from Busch on the betting side, he has to be mixed into fantasy lineups. For fantasy and betting viewpoints, Byron and Cole Custer are my most confident selections that should yield value in all formats. Byron was the best in practice behind Larson and checks all the boxes for this new package. Meanwhile, Custer was one of the top performing Fords last week and I have similar reservations again this week. While the Ford teams are struggling slightly, I still believe Custer will exceed expectations for a 2nd straight week.

Draftkings Pennzoil 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit)
William Byron +1200 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Daniel Hemric -115 over Justin Haley (3 units)
Alex Bowman -130 over Kevin Harvick (3 units)
William Byron -130 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Christopher Bell -145 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +700 finishes Top Chevrolet (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +2800 finishes as Top Ford (.5 unit)