2022 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday February 26th, 2022. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Auto Club Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will join the Cup Series in Fontana this weekend for racing at Auto Club Speedway for the first time since the 2020 season. The Xfinity Series will kick off the weekend with an action-packed Saturday which will include everything from practice, to qualifying, to the green flag with the running of the Production Alliance Group 300. Obviously, the new 2022 season brings in elements of the unknown. Fortunately unlike the Cup Series, most of the changes in the Xfinity Series this season revolve around driver and team changes as opposed to a brand new chassis. As a result, we will approach Saturday’s Xfinity Series’ event with cautious optimism.

While it has been two years since NASCAR visited Fontana, Auto Club Speedway will present the same challenge that it did back in 2020. The 2.0 mile D-shaped oval with 14 degree banking produces high speeds due to the track’s size which can be compared in appearance to Michigan International Speedway. Unlike Michigan, Auto Club Speedway has an extremely rugged surface that can be compared to the old Atlanta surface. In fact now that Atlanta Motor Speedway has been repaved, Auto Club Speedway has the oldest asphalt surface of any track in the Cup Series. Therefore, long run speed and the ability to manage tire wear will be extremely important in both races this weekend.

For all of my readers, this will be a unique Saturday for the Xfinity Series with practice, qualifying, and the green flag within just 5 hours of each other. Obviously, I am going ahead and posting the majority of my analysis and expectations ahead of Saturday’s on-track activities. However, I will also add practice observations shortly after practice concludes which may provide some additional insight into what to expect when the green flag waves. As a result, be sure to check back closer to the start time (5:00PM EST) for added content and additional betting picks following practice and qualifying sessions.

Performance Loop Data

Since Auto Club Speedway is one of the larger ovals on the schedule, raw speed will be important towards establishing track position and outright speed. Obviously, drivers will be faced with a steep challenge of managing tires and/or laying down the best laps once grip evaporates with each passing lap. While we know some drivers like Justin Allgaier and Noah Gragson have notoriously strong reputations for excelling in low grip conditions, we also have a lot of driver and team changes to consider this weekend as well. For that reason, I went back and compiled loop data stats from the last 3 races in 2021 at tracks that favor raw (horsepower) style speed.

Since we have experienced drivers moving to the Cup Series from last year’s event combined with movement within the Xfinity Series, I did my best to put the car number in parenthesis to note that teams/organizations that were associated with the performance observed in the loop data below. For example, reigning series champion Daniel Hemric produced a solid 100.2 average rating in the #18 car across the 3 races in our sample size last year. However, Hemric will move from the #18 team with Joe Gibbs Racing to the #11 team with Kaulig Racing this season.

If you want to try and estimate if that would be a step up or down, look at Justin Haley’s stats (86.7) in the #11 car from last year’s same sample size. Now, obviously this is not going to be a perfect representation of performance because different drivers can make a big difference behind the wheel. However, if you pay close attention then you may recognize that JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers pretty much dominated the performance trends at the horsepower tracks at the end of 2021. While every new season produces changes, we can make some baseline expectations when we combine this information with all of our other handicapping variables.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Justin Allgaier	124.3	4.7	2.7	4.0	5.0	45	59	99	540
AJ Allmendinger	120.6	1.7	8.7	4.7	5.7	33	36	103	540
Josh Berry (#1 car)	119.5	16.0	5.0	2.5	8.0	57	54	62	340
Noah Gragson	110.7	6.0	14.7	3.0	7.3	45	21	1	540
Ty Gibbs	107.5	8.0	6.5	12.0	5.0	5	12	1	339
Brandon Jones	100.7	13.0	8.7	6.0	8.3	44	7	0	540
Daniel Hemric (#18 car)	100.2	5.7	15.0	15.3	13.0	6	41	55	437
Harrison Burton (#20 car)	92.8	6.3	7.3	7.7	10.3	-16	13	6	540
Justin Haley (#11 car)	86.7	3.7	20.7	11.0	13.0	27	5	2	539
Brett Moffitt	85.5	24.3	11.3	12.0	13.0	74	0	0	539
Riley Herbst	77.8	12.7	16.3	17.3	17.0	-14	0	0	370
Jeb Burton (#10 car)	75.7	13.0	15.0	25.3	18.0	-19	2	23	365
Tommy Joe Martins	74.2	20.3	15.7	17.0	16.7	-48	0	0	538
Myatt Snider (#2 car)	72.3	11.0	18.3	24.0	19.3	-47	0	0	444
Ryan Sieg	69.3	21.7	26.3	14.3	22.7	40	7	0	538
Sam Mayer (#8 car)	66.9	12.7	24.3	26.7	24.3	-23	5	0	345
Bayley Currey	62.5	38.0	20.7	21.3	22.7	36	3	0	503
Kyle Weatherman	62.4	24.0	18.7	22.3	21.0	1	0	0	535
Josh Williams	60.1	15.7	20.3	20.3	21.0	-54	0	0	534
Jeremy Clements	59.6	12.7	23.3	26.3	23.7	-17	0	0	365
Brandon Brown	58.4	19.7	27.0	31.7	25.3	9	0	0	403
Jade Buford	53.7	19.7	25.3	24.7	26.3	-4	0	0	415
Landon Cassill	53.1	23.7	26.7	26.0	25.7	-6	0	0	445
Alex Labbe	51.5	15.3	27.3	31.0	27.7	-54	0	0	352
Matt Mills	49.8	29.0	22.0	24.7	25.0	8	0	0	526
Jeffrey Earnhardt	47.2	25.0	24.3	25.0	27.0	-28	0	0	530
Mason Massey	41.0	30.3	30.3	26.7	29.0	-7	0	0	518

Betting Strategy and Targets

Surprisingly, there will only be one former winner in the field on Saturday and that will be Cup Series driver Cole Custer who will be making a start in the #07 car for SS-Green Light Racing under Bobby Dotter. Custer will obviously be faced with a huge disadvantage in the equipment department meaning we will likely see a first time Auto Club Speedway winner. From a strategy perspective, we don’t have enough performance or in-season data to try to identify betting line vulnerabilities. Instead, our major focus for this race should be a conservative heavy hitter approach around the few drivers that we expect to be undeniably strong.

While many will likely gravitate to Ty Gibbs this week for respectable reasons, I have my sights firmly set on the likes of Noah Gragson and rookie Austin Hill to do good things. If I had to pick an outright winner other than Gibbs, Gragson sits at top of the list based on experience, speed, and simply raw talent. Gragson is one of those drivers that typically navigates low-grip layouts with tenacity and I think that will be beneficial here against a relatively weak strength of field. For Austin Hill, he won his first race at Daytona last week which will certainly hurt the underdog factor this week. I had big reservations for Hill this season with Richard Childress Racing and it’s somewhat unfortunate he found victory lane so soon at Daytona. I think it would be a stretch for Hill to win his 2nd straight this week but I have noticed that he has always performed exceedingly well at the high tire wear venues from his activity in the Truck Series. If everything goes to plan, I expect Hill to have a high-ceiling type of afternoon.

Obviously you could make arguments that guys like AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Hemric, and Josh Berry should be in the mix on Saturday based solely on their talent levels. However, I am still not convinced in Kaulig Racing’s outright speed enough to consider either Allmendinger or Hemric with a high degree of confidence especially considering both drivers’ relatively low win ratio. For Josh Berry, I would probably be high on the 2021 breakout star who will be entering his first full season with JR Motorsports if he had any prior experience at Auto Club Speedway. Since that is not the case, it’s hard to see a first time driver winning this race which is slightly the reason I am pivoting against Ty Gibbs even though I believe Gibbs talent level is on another level.

For deeper H2H and fantasy options, don’t overlook guys like Ryan Sieg and Landon Cassill to produce quality top 15 style runs with top 10 ceilings. Sieg has performed well at Auto Club Speedway in recent years and should see some benefits from their move to Ford with Roush-Yates engines in year number two of their transition. Meanwhile, Landon Cassill is one of those drivers that has a recognizable name though he is often listed in bottom-tier match-ups. Cassill gets a really good opportunity with Kaulig Racing this year which should uplift his career. If odds makers don’t have Cassill paired against reasonable competition, he could be a target in the early weeks of the season.

Drivers to Fade

As stated earlier, I would be really careful with the term “fade” this week. I am mainly focusing on drivers to target through the first couple of races as we become more familiar with the performance baselines. With that being said, I will keep things relatively brief with my explanations. I am simply looking for value opposition against the likes of Sheldon Creed, Cole Custer, and Justin Allgaier. My reasons for each driver are different but completely straightforward.

I am staying away from Creed based on experience, staying away from Custer based on the equipment factor, and my sharp fade is Justin Allgaier. Though Allgaier is usually a good driver for long run pace, he has traditionally struggled at Fontana. Outside of a runner-up finish in 2018, Allgaier has routinely finished anywhere from 8th-12th throughout his career in top tier equipment. Since Allgaier is listed as one of the main betting favorites, this gives bettors an opportunity to pivot against the #7 car and perhaps find some value in opposing match-ups.

Practice Observations

Practice just recently concluded at Auto Club Speedway and currently qualifying is underway for this evening’s event. At the end of the 30 minute session, Justin Allgaier topped the charts over Noah Gragson, Brandon Jones, AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and others. I would say no big surprises among the top guys. Allgaier showed really good speed but he has historically faded in race conditions at Auto Club Speedway so I am not necessarily increasing his chances at the outright win.

For bettors that have yet to place bets, I will warn others that Cole Custer was much faster than I expected in the #07 car. I still like my chances fading Custer in all formats but it is not near the slam dunk that I once believed. In terms of outright surprises, I would say that Brandon Jones looked really solid despite only running a total of 12 laps. Additionally, Ryan Sieg who I mentioned previously also looked solid among the less popular guys. Both guys are worth keeping on H2H radars as we get closer to start time.

Draftkings Production Alliance Group 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +600 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +750 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

*Match-ups courtesy of BetAnySports

Josh Berry -115 over Cole Custer (3 units)
Trevor Bayne +115 over Cole Custer (3 units)
Brandon Jones -115 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Brett Moffitt -115 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
Austin Hill +325 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +550 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)