2022 United Rentals 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 12th, 2022. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage on Saturday with the running of the United Rentals 200 at Phoenix Raceway. Last week, rookie sensation Ty Gibbs earned his first victory of the season at Las Vegas and has quickly become the near weekly favorite among Xfinity Series’ regulars. Gibbs has just 1 start at Phoenix which resulted in a strong runner-up finish last spring in the United Rentals 200. While those factors have Gibbs receiving heavy favorite odds again on Saturday, it is also worth noting that betting favorites have rarely prevailed at Phoenix Raceway in the Xfinity Series over the last several races.

In last fall’s championship finale, Daniel Hemric stunned a lot of fans by earning his 1st Xfinity Series victory to win the championship at Phoenix. Though Hemric was among the 4 championship competitors, he was largely overlooked by bettors. The same scenarios were produced with Austin Cindric’s 2020 fall victory and Brandon Jones’ who scored just the 2nd win of his career in the spring race at Phoenix that same season. Needless to say, bettors should keep an open mind this week and not get locked-in on any single drivers. As a result, we will take a look at the drivers that deserve betting attention at the front of the field and also outline a few sharp individuals to keep in mind for fantasy and H2H match-up purposes.

Breaking down the favorites

While Ty Gibbs seems to be getting the majority of the betting attention among the favorites, I think we need to level-set our expectations based on prior history. Unlike some of the intermediate speedways the series has visited over the last two weeks, Phoenix relies heavily on the driver input to earn fast laps as opposed to solely equipment speed. While Gibbs was impressive in his lone start last spring, Daniel Hemric and Justin Allgaier both posted triple digit driver ratings in each of the Phoenix races last year.

While Hemric’s championship win remains his lone victory in NASCAR, he typically runs well at Phoenix. Likewise, Allgaier is a two-time winner at Phoenix and has led a minimum of 30 laps in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. I would say that Allgaier has the most impressive history out of the entire field for Saturday’s race. What makes Allgaier also intriguing as a betting option is the fact he does not always qualify well. Allgaier’s strengths usually come through in long green flag runs as opposed to single fast laps. While that style of driving will typically turn away bettors once qualifying times are posted, Allgaier can be trusted more so in green flag conditions.

The rest of the drivers within the 10 to 1 range or less include the likes of Noah Gragson, Josh Berry, AJ Allmendinger, and even Trevor Bayne at some books. While Berry is likely going to have a big season, I simply cannot justify the near 6 to 1 odds price tag that he is wearing this week. In fact, I have similar reservations for Berry, Allmendinger, and Bayne for different reasons. Berry simply does not have the experience nor the win percentage to warrant low odds. Allmendinger has never been great at Phoenix with just 1 top 5 finish in 4 starts. Meanwhile, Bayne is only getting “favorite” style odds because he will be piloting the #18 for Joe Gibbs Racing which has the best reputation for performance in the series.

However, Gragson is the only driver that likely has some justification around his current odds. Despite some poor finishes, Gragson has routinely run inside the top 5 at Phoenix despite having just one runner-up finish in 2022 to show for it. Still, Gragson holds some sharp value as one of the best talents in the series that has shown enough speed at Phoenix on a consistent basis. Therefore, I would slide Gragson behind Gibbs and Allgaier as the most realistic top favorites for Saturday’s United Rentals 200

Betting Targets

While I may wait until Saturday morning’s practice before finalizing thoughts and bets, I still have my sights on Allgaier and Gragson among the favorites for Saturday’s race in terms of win (futures) odds. I believe we can gamble on Allgaier qualifying outside the top rows which could allow us better odds on the #7 closer to race time. Gragson on the other hand is a guy that you can get a lot of different numbers on depending on which sportsbooks that you use. I have found Gragson as high as +700 which is good enough for immediate action.

Aside from the favorites, I have really sharp expectations for Riley Herbst, Brett Moffit, and Sheldon Creed in the form of H2H match-ups and potential fantasy racing lineups. Herbst is one of my main underdogs of the weekend following 4th place finishes in both 2021 races at Phoenix. With another year under his belt, Herbst has a really high ceiling this week based on the fact that nobody appears overly dominant going into Saturday’s green flag. Brett Moffitt is another individual worthy of discussion. Moffitt posted some of his best finishes of 2021 at Phoenix which included 8th and 9th place results.

Our Motorsports is not exactly what I would call a top team but they appear to be even more competitive based on last week’s results at Phoenix. Moffitt is typically paired against bottom-tier drivers and that could be a big advantage for this event. Lastly, don’t completely overlook Sheldon Creed this week. Creed is one of the full-time rookies in the Xfinity Series this season and while he lacks experience; he did post a 10th place result in his only start at Phoenix in last year’s finale. I’ve always considered Creed a better short track driver and believe Phoenix provides the type of venue that could display his skills. Like Moffitt, Creed has been paired against some relatively poor talents this season and for that reason he deserves to be on betting radars.

Saturday Practice

Today’s brief 30 minute practice session just concluded with Ty Gibbs posting the fastest lap at 130.402. However, I must admit that bettors should be extremely happy with our early bets judging by practice outcomes. Noah Gragson appeared to have the best race speed followed by the JGR cars. Meanwhile, nearly all the drivers that I mentioned should bring H2H value in the likes of Riley Herbst, Brett Moffitt, and Sheldon Creed; all of those drivers exceeded expectations.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Kaulig Racing cars of AJ Allmendinger and Daniel Hemric did not appear that strong. In fact, Landon Cassill was the strongest looked car from the Kaulig Racing brigade. Justin Allgaier was also in that bucket of cars that did not appear too strong but I predicted that above. Allgaier is always a better race (pace) driver at Phoenix and if odds-makers over react to practice and upcoming qualifying, then Allgaier is still in play as I believe he will make his way to the front if they can get the car to turn a little better.

2022 Draftkings United Rentals 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 United Rentals 200 Race Picks

*Final

Noah Gragson +700 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +950 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +1700( .5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Riley Herbst -115 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Brett Moffitt -115 over Ryan Sieg (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -130 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +100 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Riley Herbst +425 (finishes Top 5)(1 unit)