2023 Contender Boats 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 21st, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: NBC

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will be the closing act in Saturday’s double-header at Homestead-Miami Speedway when the green flag waves for the Contender Boats 300. Shortly after the Truck Series concludes with the running of the Baptist Health 200, the Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight with more playoff implications on the line. Along with the playoff storylines, it is also worth noting that Dale Earnhardt Jr will be competing for the 2nd time this season and will join the Xfinity Series regulars at one of the most exciting tracks in the sport.

Last week, Riley Herbst earned his first career victory at Las Vegas. Herbst’s win was somewhat surprising considering he had not shown winning speed in the weeks prior. However, Herbst actually dominated last week’s race and cashed an underdog ticket that few saw coming. For Saturday’s race at Homestead, I’m not confident we will see another underdog victory though I cannot rule out the possibility. My reasoning is because tracks like Homestead, with heavy tire wear and low-grip conditions, usually play into the hands of the top drivers because those guys will be letting their talents shine with nearly every lap around Homestead’s 1.5 mile speedway.

In fact, Homestead-Miami Speedway actually produces more tire wear than more notorious rugged surfaces like Darlington and Richmond. In Friday’s practice, we saw lap times fall by nearly 2 seconds in just 15 laps which means long-run speed will be extremely important in every race at Homestead this weekend. From a betting standpoint, I believe this is a good handicapping venue for bettors because we can usually find sharp value in H2H match-ups when oddsmakers overreact to in-season performance trends and qualifying results. While we may not find the best value in futures (win) bets, we can still find paths to a profitable afternoon if we make the right selections!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

In recent weeks, I have spoken consistently about in-season performance trends at the 1.5 mile speedways and they are worth reviewing going into the weekend. However, Homestead is one of those venues where historical trends can be just as important. Going into the weekend, I was looking to bet Cole Custer because the Stewart-Haas cars have shown considerable improvement in recent weeks, which was evident in Riley Herbst’s victory last week. More importantly, Custer has been strong throughout his career at Homestead-Miami Speedway which was the site of his first career victory in the series back in 2017.

In both of Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions, Custer indeed proved that he is the man to beat going into the weekend. Custer set blazing fast times in both practice and qualifying which was 1-2 tenths better than the nearest competitor in each session. In practice specifically, Custer was easily the fastest car in race trim, however I thought John Hunter Nemechek got closer to Custer’s speed the longer the cars were on the track which may signal the #20 team has the better long-run speed. Behind the top two guys, Austin Hill was perhaps the only other driver that showed really good speed. Though I will admit, I think many drivers were being conservative in practice so our observations are only a very small portion of the handicapping equation this week. Deeper notable mentions that appeared to exceed expectations included Brett Moffitt, Kyle Weatherman, and Ryan Sieg.

Betting Targets

Like I said above, I don’t believe there is going to be much value on futures (win) bets this week. Pole sitter Cole Custer is definitely the favorite while John Hunter Nemechek (who has been the favorite every week) is likely the only guy that I see potentially beating these guys in straight up conditions. Simply put, I think this is a two-horse race among the outright favorites unless strategy (tires) comes into play and someone manages to steal one late. If I had to pick potential upset candidates, I would lean towards someone like Austin Hill. However, I think dark horse picks this week would be more hopeful than favorable.

For H2H picks, this is where I believe we can be really sharp. There were a few drivers that had relatively horrible qualifying runs that I expect will run much better on Saturday including the likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeb Burton. While I will keep both of those guys on my betting radar, I believe sharper plays may surround names like Austin Hill, Brandon Jones, and Brett Moffi may provide some of our better opportunities. I mentioned Hill above as a potential dark horse so no further explanation necessary. Brandon Jones is a guy that I never like to back in the betting department. However, he has always been better than we give him credit for at these low-grip venues. After a bad qualifying effort, there is a lot of value for Jones in H2H formats. Lastly, Brett Moffitt is a guy that has looked strong all weekend and seems to always get the best of his equipment at these types of tracks barring mechanical failures. As a result, I think Moffitt is another strong target this week in lower-tier match-ups.

2023 Contender Boats 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Contender Boats 300 Betting Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +200 (2 units)
Austin Hill +800 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +1200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Hill -115 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Brandon Jones -115 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Riley Herbst -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)