2023 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 7th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: NBC

The first elimination race for the Xfinity Series playoffs will take place on Saturday as NASCAR returns home to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the running of the Drive for the Cure 250. Like most recent fall races at Charlotte, NASCAR will prepare for action on the ROVAL course this weekend for both the Xfinity and Cup Series which promises to yield critical playoff races for each series. For Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250, we will turn our focus to the betting side of things as the Xfinity Series embarks on their 8th road course style event of the season if you include the Chicago street race in July. Needless to say, road course racing is nothing new for the Xfinity Series and hopefully that will yield sharp betting opportunities for Saturday.

The one promising aspect for the Xfinity Series competitors will be the fact that AJ Allmendinger will not be competing this weekend. Allmendinger will compete in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 but his full-time Cup Series status will make him ineligible for Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250. The reason I mention Allmendinger is because he has won the last 4 Xfinity Series events at the ROVAL going back to 2019. The only driver aside from Allmendinger to win in Xfinity Series competition at the ROVAL was Chase Briscoe back in the inaugural series race in 2018. Therefore, we will definitely see a first-time winner at the ROVAL once the checkered flag waves on Saturday.

According to current betting odds, Justin Allgaier is listed as the outright favorite going into Saturday’s on-track activities. However, Allgaier has not won this year at the road courses despite being a near weekly favorite in the series. Both Cole Custer and Sam Mayer have each produced two victories at the road course venues and definitely deserve to be in the winning discussion. However, road course races do not always go in the direction of the favorites and there are several drivers that deserve consideration this week. Therefore, let’s look at the performance trends throughout the season from the road course races in an attempt to identify betting value going into Saturday.

Xfinity Series Road Course Loop Data

I compiled loop data averages for the 7 previous races this year at road course venues to paint a picture of how teams/drivers have performed from a holistic perspective. In reviewing the data below, I’m not sure there are any major surprises at the top of our analytics with Justin Allgaier and Sam Mayer. However, I will say that Sheldon Creed’s 3rd best average rating of 100.7 is slightly surprising. Creed has run well at the road courses but has not always gotten the finishes to show his performance. However, Creed’s 100.7 rating is better than Cole Custer (97.5) who has two wins at the road course venues.

Beyond the top favorites, Austin Hill and Parker Kligerman are additional names that have caught my eye. For some reason, Hill has always been an underrated road course talent and it often seems that oddsmakers do not give the driver of the #21 enough respect. Meanwhile, Kligerman just always seems to get the best of his equipment and perhaps presents H2H opportunities. As we look deeper into the field, we do not see as many clear outliers in positive performance. However, I will say that Kaz Grala and Sage Karam have had some excellent showings this year at the road course venues. Despite inconsistency, both drivers have much higher ceilings than the performance averages may suggest.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Justin Allgaier	109.2	5.7	3.5	8.8	5.7	12	21	66	399
Sam Mayer	107.3	13.5	9.3	4.0	8.5	80	20	15	399
Sheldon Creed	100.7	7.0	7.7	10.5	8.8	49	11	64	399
Cole Custer	97.5	8.3	5.3	13.7	11.0	49	30	6	390
Austin Hill	97.1	10.3	11.5	11.8	10.8	-63	12	4	366
John Hunter Nemechek	90.4	7.8	7.3	17.7	10.7	-77	11	3	381
Parker Kligerman	90.3	12.3	11.8	10.3	11.7	21	17	1	399
Riley Herbst	81.6	11.0	16.2	18.2	15.0	-69	4	0	338
Daniel Hemric	79.7	12.0	18.2	18.8	15.8	-26	3	3	366
Josh Berry	79.4	10.0	18.3	14.2	16.0	-30	5	2	396
Sammy Smith	76.1	10.7	17.0	20.0	17.0	-25	6	0	388
Kaz Grala	74.0	18.3	15.5	18.0	16.0	8	1	0	391
Chandler Smith	69.3	17.7	19.3	19.0	20.5	-15	0	0	364
Brandon Jones	69.0	28.8	21.8	14.5	18.8	-4	0	0	399
Brett Moffitt	69.0	19.8	19.0	22.2	20.2	61	0	0	334
Alex Labbe	66.8	22.3	20.5	19.8	20.3	-8	1	2	385
Jeb Burton	66.6	20.3	17.0	18.3	17.2	-8	0	0	399
Sage Karam	66.3	18.2	21.8	20.6	19.0	5	3	0	291
Connor Mosack	61.6	17.3	19.5	19.8	20.0	-71	0	0	393
Josh Bilicki	60.6	21.4	23.4	19.6	21.0	39	0	1	319
Parker Retzlaff	59.7	24.3	24.3	21.5	23.2	24	0	0	337
Kyle Weatherman	56.7	30.2	23.8	19.4	23.0	23	0	2	322
Jeremy Clements	56.0	22.7	24.5	22.7	23.0	24	0	1	334
Ryan Sieg	54.0	29.8	19.3	22.5	22.7	-10	0	0	394
Anthony Alfredo	52.4	27.5	22.5	24.0	23.5	3	0	0	339
Blaine Perkins	44.5	31.2	29.0	26.2	29.2	-7	0	0	276
Brennan Poole	44.3	31.2	30.4	24.6	28.6	-8	0	0	241
Josh Williams	44.0	27.2	31.0	28.2	28.2	-18	0	0	266
Kyle Sieg	39.1	33.6	30.0	28.2	30.6	5	0	0	278
Brad Perez	37.1	28.3	31.5	28.8	30.5	-7	0	0	198
Joe Graf Jr	34.6	35.7	32.0	27.3	31.2	-3	0	0	382

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I do believe that Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier are deserving favorites on Saturday. While they may deserve the labels of betting favorites, I’m not sure either of those two drivers deserves to be getting the 4-1 odds that betting odds currently display. Allgaier nor Custer have been particularly great at the ROVAL in their prior starts. Allgaier has a few quality finishes but nothing that represents undeniable dominance based on the competitors that will be competing on Saturday. Therefore, I am going to wait until practice concludes Saturday morning before making a determination to take any of the heavy favorites.

As things currently stand, I do have several drivers that I am looking to target in different formats. Brandon Jones is a driver that has not performed well all season and ranks relatively low in our loop data metrics above. However, Jones has been really good at the ROVAL in recent years and has a much higher ceiling than current betting odds suggests. As a result, I believe Jones is an excellent H2H option and may even warrant some dark horse consideration. I would also list both Sheldon Creed and Daniel Hemric as potential H2H options if you can find those guys in the right pairings. Personally, I hate betting on Hemric because he always seems to let me down.

However, Hemric has consistently run well at the ROVAL which is the reason he should be considered. In my opinion, Creed has the bigger upside based on the loop data metrics above. Creed posted a solid run at the ROVAL last year which included several of the race’s fastest laps despite a poor finish. Therefore, I believe Creed’s ceiling is even higher going into Saturday’s event. Meanwhile, I would keep a close eye on the likes of Kaz Grala and Alex Labbe as potential fantasy and H2H dark horses. Both drivers are considered lower rated talents and both drivers do their best work at the road courses.

2023 Drive for the Cure 250 Optimal Lineup

2023 Drive for the Cure 250 Betting Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +500 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1000 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +4000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Hill -110 over Parker Kligerman (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -110 over Jordan Taylor (3 units)
Alex Labbe -110 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
Brandon Jones +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)