2023 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 4th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway
TV: FOX

Last year NASCAR’s debut at World Wide Technology Raceway turned out to be a success in many ways. In the competition department, fans witnessed a great late race battle between Kyle Busch and Joey Logano over the course of several restarts. In the end, Logano emerged with the first Cup Series victory at the track previously known as Gateway Motorsports Park. On Sunday, NASCAR’s best return for an encore performance in Madison for the running of the Enjoy Illinois 300 and we will discuss the best betting opportunities for Sunday’s main event.

Earlier today Kyle Busch earned the Busch Pole with a fast lap of 137.187mph. As mentioned above, Busch was very strong in last year’s debut at Gateway. Rowdy led a race-high 66 laps and finished in the runner-up spot behind Logano. Therefore, Busch appears to be the guy trending in the right direction for another shot at a victory. Behind Busch, last week’s winner Ryan Blaney earned a front row starting spot in the 2nd position. Meanwhile, the rest of the top 10 consisted of the biggest names in the sport in Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, Joey Logano, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric.

Obviously one of the big storylines entering this weekend’s race at World Wide Technology Raceway is the fact that Chase Elliott will not be competing. Elliott was suspended for one race on Tuesday as punishment for intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin last week at Charlotte. In Elliott’s absence, Corey LaJoie will have the opportunity to drive the #9 car for Hendrick Motorsports and Carson Hocevar will get the opportunity to make his first career start in the #7 car that is usually piloted by LaJoie. Hocevar is a full-time Truck Series competitor that has impressed in recent weeks in part-time starts in the Xfinity Series and will get the opportunity to make his career debut. Needless to say, there are a lot of different storylines entering this weekend’s 300-mile race which should keep things entertaining if nothing else.

Handicapping Strategy

Unfortunately, we do not have a lot of strong handicapping angles to prepare for racing at Gateway. World Wide Technology Raceway is a relatively unique and flat 1.25 mile egg-shaped oval that has two distinct different ends of the track. For bettors, we have minimal historical records due to the fact that this is just the 2nd Cup Series race at Gateway. Additionally, we have very few tracks that closely compare to racing at Gateway. What we do know is that this track will favor those drivers that are typically strong on the flatter surfaces and also those that seem to excel in heavy braking zones which will be necessary in turns 1-2 this week. Therefore, we will put our best foot forward to identify the drivers that meet the skill set and have shown speed in practice/qualifying this weekend before setting our lineup for Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300.

Practice Observations

Despite the fact Kyle Busch won the pole for tomorrow’s Enjoy Illinois 300, Denny Hamlin was the driver that appeared to have the best speed in practice. Hamlin led nearly every statistical category in terms of lap averages including the best overall time of the session. Behind Hamlin, I thought Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick were among the drivers that were best on the stopwatch. Both Reddick and Busch were strong in last year’s race and that is a trend that we are starting to see emerge. A lot of the drivers that were strong in last year’s race have shown speed again this week which tells me it could be more driver influenced than chassis/setup.

Among the rest of the field, there were a couple of other drivers that were in close proximity to the top guys. Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and William Byron were among the guys that appeared to get better as the practice session progressed. Meanwhile, lower tier drivers like Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe were both impressive as well. Briscoe was another one of those drivers that ran really strong in last year’s Enjoy Illinois 300. However, that was also the case last week when I picked Briscoe in a low-tier H2H match-up and he posted his worst performance of the season despite the fact the team was obviously cheating. Needless to say, I don’t know what to expect from Briscoe going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

I am going to be relatively conservative this week towards betting on futures. I just don’t have enough confidence in this track nor the new age of Cup Series racing to bet on futures with high confidence. I do believe the drivers, like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick that have historically performed well on flat surfaces will continue to do so. With that thought in mind, Christopher Bell has been one of the better drivers on flatter surfaces over the last 12 months. Bell did not really have an overly spectacular afternoon in practice/qualifying but I’m willing to bet he will be much better on race day. For that reason, Bell is among my sharper H2H targets for Sunday!

Due to the struggles of Ford throughout the season, I am reluctant to seek the Stewart-Haas Racing drivers in H2H match-ups even though I believe guys like Chase Briscoe and Aric Almirola will be much better than their speed on Saturday indicated. Both drivers have excelled at the most similar style of tracks and have the skill set to march forward on Sunday. However, I just question the consistency of the SHR camp. Other options that I feel more confident about include Austin Cindric and Tyler Reddick. Both Cindric and Reddick are hitting on all the right indicators and I believe will be key H2H options based on current betting odds and those drivers with similar odds around them. Lastly for fantasy purposes, take a hard look at Ryan Preece or Carson Hocevar as relatively cheap fantasy options. Both drivers are starting towards the rear and have decent upside for their salary prices.

Draftkings Enjoy Illinois 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +500 (1.5 units)
Kyle Busch +750 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kyle Busch -110 over Kyle Larson (3 units)
Alex Bowman -110 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -150 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Austin Cindric +160 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Christopher Bell +200 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)