2023 NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday November 3rd, 2023. 10:00PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

After weeks of intense racing, the NASCAR playoffs will come to a closure at Phoenix Raceway as a champion is crowned among all touring series. The opening act will take place late Friday when the Craftsman Truck Series Championship is decided after 150 laps of competition. Going into Friday’s green flag, the drivers that will be fighting for the Truck Series title include Corey Heim, Carson Hocevar, Grant Enfinger, and Ben Rhodes. In that group, Rhodes is the only former series champion and like all other series this weekend; the majority of the championship contenders will be trying to gain the first championship of their careers!

Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series which both visited Phoenix Raceway in the spring, this will be the first and only stop of the season for the Truck Series at Phoenix Raceway. As a result, we don’t have any prior races at Phoenix this season to reference from a handicapping perspective. Instead, handicappers should be looking for in-season performance trends on similar layout and compare each championship drivers’ driving style to formulate betting picks this weekend. With that being said, we also must keep an open mind throughout the weekend. While we know historically, the season finales are won by a championship contender; that is not always the case and we will be looking to identify non-championship contenders that could contend for a win this Friday or create better betting value!

Lastly, we will also take a look at practice times from Thursday to also consider before finalizing our betting predictions. While practice times can be somewhat misleading at times, we obviously still have to consider practice observations opposed to only historical narratives. Typically in these championship finales, betting odds are very conservative due to the likelihood of a championship contender finding victory lane. For that reason, our best betting value may be found in H2H match-ups this week so it will also be equally important to find the drivers that should greatly outrun their betting odds and projections. With those things in mind, let’s hop into everything to be considered!

Handicapping Notes

While Phoenix Raceway is a ¾ mile tri-oval, it is not best considered a short track when trying to look for similar handicapping venues. While Phoenix may technically be a short track, it is not remotely close to tracks like Bristol, Martinsville, or some of the other known short tracks on the schedule. Instead, I would list Phoenix as a “flat track” as a betting handicapping categorization. The flat track narrative of Phoenix compares closely to venues like Gateway, Richmond, and even IRP where the Truck Series has competed this season. In those races, Grant Enfinger, Ty Majeksi, and Carson Hocevar are the guys that have clearly stood out from a performance perspective.

Enfinger has always been a strong flat track talent and is having one of the best seasons of his career. Meanwhile, I don’t always consider Carson Hocevar’s talent best suited for “flat tracks,” he is likely the best overall talent in the Truck Series which often shines or the shorter layouts. Meanwhile, Ty Majeski has been really strong at all the flatter surfaces throughout the last two years in the series. So if we were to simply avoid betting odds observations prior to any betting selections, those drivers should be higher on the totem pole. Meanwhile, I would also make notable observations to names like Jake Garcia and Chase Purdy who have both performed much better than normal on the shorter, flatter surfaces.

Practice Observations

The Truck Series will qualify late Friday afternoon just a few hours before the official green flag. As a result, bettors may not have the fortitude of waiting until qualifying results are over before finalizing lineups. For now, our only data from this weekend pertains to Thursday’s lone practice session. In practice, Nick Sanchez posted the fastest lap with a speed of 134.943mph. However, Sanchez’s fast lap appeared to come during qualifying trim at the very end of practice. From a pace perspective, Ty Majeski and Zane Smith appeared to both having winning speed. Both drivers failed to make the championship finale but are among the better talents in the series which appear to be trending in the right direction.

I thought guys like Corey Heim, Christian Eckes, and Ben Rhodes all appeared to be pretty solid. Heim was the best of that group and has also been really strong all season on the shorter surfaces. However, I was mostly impressed with the likes of Chase Purdy and Jack Wood among the lower-tier drivers. I thought both Purdy and Wood showed excellent pace in practice. Not to mention, Purdy has really performed well during the 2nd half of the season. As a result, both Purdy and Wood will be among the top guys that I am looking for in match-ups this weekend. If we can find either driver against other competitors with much lower expectations, they may be worth consideration to betting lineups in the form of H2H match-ups.

Betting Targets

In breaking down all the different handicapping angles for Friday’s Truck Series Championship, I truly believe that Ty Majeski and Corey Heim may be the drivers with the best chances to pull off a win. I want to put Carson Hocevar in that category but I was slightly disappointed with his practice speed. I think Majeski probably deserves to be the outright favorite and may be worth betting consideration in all formats. Meanwhile, if I were to expect another potential winner from the rest of the field, I would probably list guys like Zane Smith, Grant Enfinger, and Carson Hocevar as the well-known guys that are within striking distance. Personally, I like Enfinger as the sharper betting option because I believe his skill set is ideal for a place like Phoenix.

Behind the names mentioned above which have the highest likelihood of winning, I would consider guys like Jake Garcia, Nick Sanchez, and Chase Purdy as the lower-tier drivers that should have top 10 upside and potentially bring value to lineups in H2H match-ups. Sanchez has performed best on the 1.5 mile tracks this season but remains one of the more talented drivers in the series. Meanwhile, Garcia and Purdy are two guys that I mentioned above that have looked strong in practice. In looking at similar layouts this season, both Purdy and Garcia have seemed to exceed expectations. Therefore, I will be looking for both drivers as potential betting targets going into Friday.

2023 Truck Series Championship Optimal Lineup

2023 Truck Series Championship Betting Picks

*Final*

Grant Enfinger +600 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +650 (.5 unit)
Ty Majeski +900 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Majeski -130 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Jake Garcia -135 over Jack Wood (2 units)
Jesse Love -105 over Taylor Gray (2 units)