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2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Race Picks

2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 19th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: NBC

For the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage at a road course venue. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series makes a stop at one of the most infamous road courses in NASCAR at Watkins Glen International. The entry list for the Shriners Children’s 200 is noteworthy for the 2nd straight week in a row as well. Much like last week’s stop at Indianapolis, both Xfinity and Cup Series teams will be in action this weekend at Watkins Glen. As a result, we see similar Cup Series entries including the likes of Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, and Ross Chastain.

Perhaps the biggest difference this week is the fact Kyle Busch will be in the #10 car driver by AJ Allmendinger last week at Indianapolis. Allmendinger has been terrific in Xfinity Series competition this season but reached his 5 limit race max for Cup Series contenders. The other noteworthy difference this week includes Alex Bowman who will be behind the wheel of the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports. Bowman admitted publicly this week that he is running Saturday’s Shriners Children’s 200 for extra seat time to improve his chances for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen. Bowman described Watkins Glen as his “worst” road course. With that being said, Bowman is still a talented driver that will be in excellent equipment this week. In fact, Bowman’s last Xfinity Series entry in the #17 came last year at the Indianapolis Road Course where he posted a runner-up finish.

Despite the reasons why everyone is competing this week, the nature of Saturday’s race will likely be similar to last week’s race at Indianapolis. While Allmendinger and Gibbs were the big two last week, Busch and Gibbs will be the heavy betting favorites this week. However, I don’t want bettors to get discouraged that we could see another “heavy favorite” winner. Last week, we were able to sweep our H2H and prop bets for the Pennzoil 150 at Indianapolis. Therefore, I am confident we should be able to find some betting value again this week and hopefully we can have the luck that we need as well.

Xfinity Series – Road Course Loop Data

Since the Xfinity Series has frequented the road courses this season, I thought it would be a great time to view the performance metrics from the other 5 road course events this season. The loop data metrics below should give bettors a fairly solid baseline for expectations on Saturday. As you will see, AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs have posted dominating statistics nearly mirroring each other throughout the season. Gibbs got the win last week at Indianapolis and is a former Xfinity Series winner at Watkins Glen. While Busch is the best to ever compete in the Xfinity Series, I’m not sure he is the deserving overall favorite threat that current betting odds suggests.

Perhaps the better storyline for betting purposes includes some of the anomalies behind the top two drivers. Even with his win at Road America, Sam Mayer’s overall stats for all 5 races remain very impressive. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed, Parker Kligerman, and Riley Herbst are all intermediate names that appear to be consistently posting quality performances at the road courses. Kligerman has slowly become one of my favorite H2H targets in the Xfinity Series road course events and he should be an option again this week. Lastly, don’t overlook names like Kaz Grala and Brett Moffitt. While their plus 70 ratings may not appear impressive, they are both accomplishing those numbers with inferior equipment. Both drivers are deep value style options for both H2H and fantasy purposes.

DriverAvg. RatingAvg. StartAvg. Mid RaceAvg. FinishAvg. Pos.Pass Diff.Fastest LapLaps LedTotal Laps
AJ Allmendinger127.32.05.53.85.0493556236
Ty Gibbs125.74.05.02.74.7273128187
Justin Allgaier109.76.23.27.45.841865313
Sam Mayer103.715.210.04.69.269127313
Sheldon Creed99.55.87.412.29.0421164313
Cole Custer97.29.25.615.011.234225304
Austin Hill94.810.213.211.412.0-5044280
John Hunter Nemechek90.17.07.220.010.4-92103295
Parker Kligerman89.612.012.211.812.00171313
Riley Herbst85.211.212.814.813.4-3940301
Daniel Hemric80.313.219.618.016.4-933282
Josh Berry76.810.620.613.017.6-1952310
Sammy Smith76.111.017.420.417.4-1160302
Kaz Grala73.819.015.816.016.6-810313
Brett Moffitt71.019.816.020.818.43800268
Alex Labbe69.622.418.419.018.8812302
Chandler Smith68.117.617.821.220.4-2300278
Brandon Jones66.929.823.015.219.8-1800313
Jeb Burton66.319.416.020.016.4-900313
Josh Bilicki65.919.821.318.318.84901236
Sage Karam64.317.524.022.020.0-330205
Parker Retzlaff61.423.424.620.622.8500255
Connor Mosack60.617.018.222.819.6-6400307
Jeremy Clements60.524.022.019.820.84501313
Kyle Weatherman57.029.523.821.023.03900236
Anthony Alfredo53.227.623.022.623.4200278
Ryan Sieg51.930.619.622.823.4300308
Blaine Perkins48.931.526.823.327.3700265
Josh Williams46.625.530.026.327.0-2500243
Preston Pardus41.518.327.330.328.3-2100150
Brennan Poole40.531.032.827.830.3-1800155
Kyle Sieg37.632.831.330.531.8-400192
Brad Perez37.128.331.528.830.5-700198
Joe Graf Jr34.535.632.428.431.6-700297

Handicapping Note

I mentioned in last week’s preview that I rarely put a lot of stock into practice and qualifying times. Obviously, general observations for any on-track activities may identify outliers in the speed department. However, traditionally the driver averages and driver talent tends to play out in the running order especially in race conditions. Therefore, I have no problem pulling the trigger early for most of our bets again this week prior to Saturday’s on-track sessions. With that being said, I will update the practice observations with my final thoughts in the section down below prior to race time!

Betting Targets

If we take in our loop data considerations and combine that with historical narratives for Watkins Glen, I think Ty Gibbs has an excellent shot to go back to back this week. Despite being a former winner at Watkins Glen in both Xfinity and Cup Series, Watkins Glen is still not one of Busch’s stronger tracks. Maybe more important, I noticed the #19 car just seemed “faster” last week when compared to the same #10 car that Busch will be piloting last week. Therefore, we have a situation where Gibbs is getting 2nd favorite betting odds despite possibly being the better road course talent and in the faster equipment!

Behind Gibbs, Sam Mayer should be another playable option in potentially all formats. Mayer has really impressed on the road course events this season and has been solid at Watkins Glen throughout his career. Perhaps better H2H specific options include the likes of Riley Herbst, Kaz Grala, and Brett Moffitt. I think all 3 of those names are sharp options based on current betting odds. Herbst is putting together a pretty hot streak of quality performances and I don’t think betting odds are giving him enough credit for his road course skills. If you are looking for a bottom-tier potential fantasy gem, I would also keep Stefan Parsons on your radar this week as a very cheap value option.

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Practice and qualifying has concluded at Watkins Glen for today’s Shriners Children’s 200. Following qualifying, Ty Gibbs will have the luxury of leading the field to green after winning the pole with a fast lap of 125.019mph. Obviously, Gibbs fast lap is not a huge surprise as we had him pegged as the outright driver to beat. Behind Gibbs, Alex Bowman, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, and Sam Mayer were the drivers that rounded out the top 5 in qualifying while Kyle Busch qualified in the 8th spot.

From reviewing both practice and qualifying, I don’t think any major changes from our prior handicapping notes are warranted. I will say that Justin Allgaier appeared to be the fastest in practice over the course of a few laps. Cole Custer was not far behind Allgaier’s lap times which likely means both drivers will be strong this afternoon. While I still believe Gibbs is the guy to beat, getting Allgaier prior to practice at 10-1 odds was probably the best early pick of the week. The only other observation worth mentioning is the fact that Alex Bowman looked really solid. Bowman could be a dark horse this afternoon even though I believe he is overvalued from a betting odds perspective.

2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Optimal Lineup

2023 Shriners Children’s 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +300 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Riley Herbst -115 over Ross Chastain (3 unit)
Kaz Grala -140 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)