2023 Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 8th, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway (DIRT)
TV: FS1
This weekend NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Cup Series will return to the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway for back to back nights of racing. On Saturday, the Craftsman Truck Series will kick the weekend off with the running of the Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt. As many are aware, this will be the 3rd year in a row NASCAR’s spring weekend at Bristol has been featured on a dirt surface. While there have been some mixed opinions about the success of the annual dirt races at Bristol, it has undeniably been a popular spectacle and that trend should continue on Saturday with a stacked Truck Series field that features Cup Series’ talents William Byron, Joey Logano, and Chase Briscoe among other well-known dirt talents like Jonathan Davenport, Tanner Carrick, and others!
Personally, I love the dirt weekends in NASCAR especially in the Craftsman Truck Series where drivers get to showcase their “wheelman” skill sets. Often casual fans and so-called handicappers will focus heavily on the drivers with “dirt” experience in preparing for NASCAR’s dirt races. However, we have often seen that dirt “experience” is not a requisite for automatic success at NASCAR’s touring levels. Instead, the better raw “wheelmen” and drivers with excellent car (truck) control have routinely shined in these events if they have had competitive equipment. For this weekend’s Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt, I think the same narrative applies where we will not be looking at “dirt” experience but rather evaluating drivers that are poised to contend for a combination of reasons.
Unfortunately, the top driving talents correlate directly with the betting favorites from the Cup Series in William Byron, Joey Logano, and Chase Briscoe who will all be driving in capable equipment. Byron will be behind the wheel of the #51 with Kyle Busch Motorsports. Logano will be driving the #66 for Thorsport Racing and Briscoe will pilot the #22 for AM Racing. Obviously, Logano and Byron have considerable edges in the equipment department as they will be driving trucks sponsored by two of the best teams in the Truck Series. Briscoe will likely have to deal with some equipment concerns as the #22 team has not shown a ton of success. However, Briscoe is also the better truck series talent in the entire field which compensates for the equipment concerns.
Despite the fact that the Cup Series’ drivers will get the majority of the pre-race attention, I would continue to warn bettors that this is far from an event where the Cup Series’ drivers will run away with things. In fact, I would argue that there is probably a 50/50 chance that a non-Cup Series driver will walk away with a victory Saturday night. Last year, Ben Rhodes captured the Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt over the likes of Logano, Chase Elliott, and others. We have seen similar trends at other Truck Series venues like Eldora and Knoxville where non-favorites have often stolen the dirt spotlight. As a result, I think it is extremely important to evaluate all betting options this week and have betting selections that follow a valuable risk-reward appetite.
Truck Series – Dirt Notes
- The Craftsman Truck Series made its first dirt debut in 2013 at Eldora Speedway. The Truck Series competed at Eldora annually from 2013-2019
- Since 2019, the Craftsman Truck Series has visited Bristol Motor Speedway and Knoxville Speedway annually. Both tracks are the only dirt venues currently on the schedule.
- In 11 Truck Series races on dirt since 2013, the eventual winner has started inside the top 7 positions in 7 of 11 races. **Since these races are relatively short, bettors should place some consideration towards heat race draws and potential starting spots.**
- In both Bristol Truck Series races the last two years, there have been minimal lead changes with 11 in the 2021 race and just 3 in last year’s event.
- Chase Briscoe has finished 3rd (Eldora – 2017), 1st (Eldora – 2018), 7th (Eldora – 2019), and 5th (Bristol – 2021) in 4 career CTS starts on dirt.
- Briscoe (Eldora), Ben Rhodes (Bristol), Matt Crafton (Eldora), and Stewart Friesen (Eldora) are the former CTS dirt winners in Saturday’s field. *Joey Logano won the inaugural Cup Series event at Bristol in 2021*
- Carson Hocevar led 120 laps at both dirt races last year, the most among all drivers.
- Grant Enfinger has finished in the top 10 in all 7 career CTS starts on dirt.
- Matt Crafton has finished in the top 10 in 11 of 12 career CTS starts on dirt.
Betting Targets
Truck Series drivers and teams will have the opportunity to practice Friday evening. On Saturday, heat races will officially begin at 4:30PM (EST). The Cup Series will actually hold qualifying races immediately after the Truck Series which will allow about 2 hours of time between the final qualifying race and the green flag for the Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt. As a result, bettors may not have the opportunity to make bets between the qualifying races and the main event. Even if they do, the time window will be extremely narrow. I just wanted to make that important note to encourage bettors to get the majority of their sharp bets submitted early on Saturday.
As I mentioned earlier, I believe our betting selections, for futures (win) bets, should be geared towards ROI this week. We have seen heavy favorites often flop in these dirt races because of high volatility. Despite being the overall favorite, William Byron is not exactly a short-track or dirt standout. Meanwhile, Logano has been underwhelming in his few starts in the Truck Series in recent years. While I remain concerned about Briscoe’s equipment, I believe he is the best talent in Saturday’s field and deserves consideration based on semi-generous opening odds.
Behind the Big 3, I think there are numerous drivers worthy of potentially running strong on Saturday. Beyond all of the options, I really believe Carson Hocevar and Ty Majeski hold the best dark horse value. I mentioned all the laps Hocevar led last year in our notes above and he clearly was sensational at both dirt events last season despite failing to get a win. However, Hocevar showcased undeniably talent in both races last year which suits nicely following last week’s breakout victory at Texas. Meanwhile, Majeski ran extremely well in both dirt races last season despite the fact he had absolutely 0 dirt experience prior to the year. Majeski was really strong in last year’s race at Bristol but failed to get the finish to show for it. However, Majeski was able to bring home a 4th place result at Knoxville last summer. Based on both drivers’ progression and current status, I believe they are the dark horses that deserve attention this week.
Obviously there are a lot of names that I have not mentioned that are certainly capable of winning this weekend. Zane Smith, Stewart Friesen, Ben Rhodes, among others are certainly capable of winning at Bristol. However, I think the majority of those drivers are extremely overvalued from an odds standpoint. Keep in mind, I will be watching Friday’s sessions so perhaps we will have more clear cut favorites despite current betting odds to target following Friday’s on-track activities. For now, I am only taking those drivers with the strong ROI upside for my early selections. In H2H match-ups, my potential targets are more broad. I believe Grant Enfinger, Nick Sanchez, and Parker Kligerman are additional names that should exceed expectations and bring considerable value in H2H match-ups. Obviously, the goal this week will be finding those match-ups where we have the best disparity between drivers but all of the names above should offer upside!
*Friday’s practice was cancelled due to rain*
2023 Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt Picks
*Final*
Chase Briscoe +800 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1000 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +1400 (.75 unit)
Nick Sanchez +3000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Ty Majeski -110 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -125 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Grant Enfinger +700 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Nick Sanchez +850 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
