2026 Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday September 6th, 2026. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

On Sunday, NASCAR’s “Chase” format officially returns for the first time since 2013 when the green flag waves for one of the most prestigious races of the season in the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. The Cup Series will no longer have the 3-race rounds and single championship finale to determine an entire year’s worth of performance. Instead, the next 10 races will cumulatively decide this year’s Cup Series Champion. As things currently stand, Denny Hamlin leads the points standings as the regular season champion and enters the final stretch of the season as the sentimental favorite to earn his first Cup Series title in his Hall of Fame career! Hamlin also holds the most wins (5) among active drivers at Darlington and enters the weekend among the overall betting favorites!

In yesterday’s O’Reilly Series preview, I mentioned the fact that Darlington Raceway rarely provides the betting opportunity for a surprise winner. This historic track is really tough to navigate due to its uniquely narrow shape and abrasive racing surface that holds minimal grip. There is a reason that Darlington Raceway has several nicknames like “Too Tough To Tame” and “The Lady in Black.” This track is extremely difficult to conquer and we usually see the best drivers in the sport emerge at the front of the field. As a result, we also usually see a lot of familiar names at the front of the field in a routine battle of the favorites. While the idea of a surprise winner is not out of the equation, we should expect that most of the likely contenders will have minimal betting value in futures (win) formats.

I mention those factors not to discourage bettors this weekend but to limit expectations specifically in futures formats. In H2H formats, I would make the argument that Darlington Raceway is my absolute favorite venue for betting H2H match-ups. There are usually good opportunities to fade drivers that are overvalued or undervalued based on recent momentum or qualifying results. Once the green flag waves, recent momentum and fast lap results are completely out of the window. The only thing that matters at Darlington is surviving the treacherous track and making the best speed over the long-run when grip is absolutely non-existent. As a result, we usually have a good idea of the drivers to target and fade based on historical data. If we can identify those sharp differences in betting match-ups, we should have a clear betting advantage!

Darlington – Cup Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with 5 career wins at Darlington.
• Erik Jones (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Chase Briscoe (2), Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and William Byron are former winners at Darlington.
• Tyler Reddick (114.5), William Byron (105.8), Denny Hamlin (100.7), Brad Keselowski (97.8), and Kyle Larson (93.7) have the highest average driver ratings over the last 7 races at Darlington.
• Chase Briscoe has won the last two (2) Southern 500 races at Darlington.
• Christopher Bell has finished 3rd in 2 of the last 4 races at Darlington.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 4th or better in the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Ryan Blaney has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Chase Briscoe has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Denny Hamlin has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Carson Hocevar has finished 9th or better in the last 2 races at Darlington.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 9th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Darlington.
• Chris Buescher has finished 10th or better in 4 straight races at Darlington.
• Ross Chastain has finished 11th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Darlington.
• Austin Cindric has finished 13th or better in the last 4 races at Darlington.
• Kyle Larson has finished 19th or worse in the last 3 races at Darlington.
• Michael McDowell has finished 28th or worse in 5 of the last 7 races at Darlington.
• Toyota drivers have won the last 3 races at Darlington.
• There have been at least 7 cautions in 8 of the last 10 races at Darlington.
• The race winner has started from the top 3 positions in the last 5 races at Darlington.

Additional Metrics

Practice and qualifying were both cancelled on Saturday due to weather. As a result, Tyler Reddick will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag. Due to the fact that we don’t have any practice data, I believe that likely benefits the drivers/teams that have historically performed well at Darlington. As a result, I compiled additional performance metrics that are specific to Darlington Raceway to provide us a solid handicapping foundation going into Sunday! The below performance metrics are from the last 5 races at Darlington Raceway and these metrics essentially speak for itself.

Driver	Avg Driver Rating	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Avg Position	Total Fastest Laps	Races Run
Tyler Reddick	119.7	3.8	9.8	5.4	203	5
Chase Briscoe	103.8	9	9.4	9.2	108	5
William Byron	102.5	7.6	13.4	7.8	113	5
Denny Hamlin	101.7	6.8	6	8.6	81	5
Chris Buescher	96.3	9.6	12.2	9.6	34	5
Brad Keselowski	95.4	14.2	13	13.8	83	5
Bubba Wallace	90.3	4.8	16.8	11.8	33	5
Ty Gibbs	89.8	14.4	11.8	10.2	37	5
Kyle Larson	87	7.6	25.2	12.8	80	5
Ross Chastain	86.4	17.4	10	13.2	13	5
Christopher Bell	82.2	13.4	13.4	14	37	5
Austin Cindric	79.8	12.8	12.2	16	6	5
Ryan Preece	76.6	20.4	16.8	16	12	5
Ryan Blaney	75.1	10.4	19.8	19.8	92	5
Erik Jones	74.6	27	14.6	17.6	27	5
Chase Elliott	72.9	18	12.6	17	19	5
Joey Logano	72.7	19.6	19	16.4	2	5
A.J. Allmendinger	70.9	23.7	17.7	19.3	30	3
Josh Berry	65.1	20.2	25	21.6	27	5
Todd Gilliland	63	23.8	19	20.4	18	5
Carson Hocevar	61.1	15.6	20.8	21.6	23	5
Noah Gragson	58.8	31	21	21.2	6	5
John H. Nemechek	58.4	23.6	23.4	23.2	26	5
Daniel Suarez	58.3	21.8	17.8	22	15	5
Alex Bowman	57.6	26.8	23.2	22.5	27	4
Michael McDowell	56.6	20.4	24	21.4	57	5
Connor Zilisch	56.2	32	18	23	1	1
Austin Dillon	55.9	16.2	22.8	21	8	5
Zane Smith	54.6	22.4	21	24.6	8	5
Shane Van Gisbergen	51.5	30.8	23	24.8	28	4
Cole Custer	43.4	28	24.7	26.7	10	3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	42.1	27.4	25.8	28.6	15	5
Austin Hill	42	37	31	27	11	1
Ty Dillon	41.9	32	27	28	22	3
Riley Herbst	41.5	26.3	32.3	27.7	7	3
Cody Ware	30.3	35	33.3	33.3	0	3

Betting Targets

While I understand Denny Hamlin has the best overall resume at Darlington, I would argue that nobody has been better than Tyler Reddick at Darlington over the last several years. Reddick has posted a 106.0 driver rating in 6 straight races at Darlington and has posted 119 or higher in 5 of 6 of those races. Those metrics are far superior than any other driver in the field. For that reason, I am willing to put some major focus towards Reddick despite the team’s bad luck in recent weeks. With that being said, I cannot fault anyone for wanting to take Denny Hamlin or Chase Briscoe among the outright favorites. All 3 of those drivers have been extremely stout at Darlington and should be tough again when the green flag waves on Sunday.

As I alluded to earlier, I am going to be very cautious in terms of futures (win) formats. Outside of the favorites, I believe Kyle Larson has enough value to warrant a pivot to the overall betting favorites. Larson has shown solid speed in recent weeks and is one of the best talents in the field which is a recipe for success at Darlington. If you are looking deeper into the field for potential dark horses, Bubba Wallace and Brad Keselowski are solid options. Keselowski has been a bit inconsistent at Darlington in recent years but he has proved on multiple occasions he can produce winning speed. Wallace has been a lot more consistent but has not been “elite” either. With that said, the #23 team has shown improvement in speed in recent weeks and I think that bodes well for their chances to have a strong run Sunday evening. Personally, Wallace is one of my favorite H2H targets based on current betting odds and has legitimate Top 5 upside. Even deeper options that can be potentially targeted in prop bet formats include Austin Cindric and Ryan Preece. Both drivers will be starting towards the front and have very underrated performance results at Darlington. If either of those drivers can maintain their track position, they could be valuable in low-risk/high-reward formats.

Draftkings Cook Out Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2026 Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Race Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +500 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +1000 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2500 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -120 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -110 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Austin Cindric -110 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Ty Gibbs +1200 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1500 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Lead changes over 21.5 (-120)(2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Joe Gibbs Racing +120 wins Southern 500
Austin Cindric +200 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +575