2026 Winn-Dixie 250 Betting Race Picks
Date/Time: Friday August 28th, 2026. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: CW
Both the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Cup Series will put the final bow on NASCAR’s regular season this weekend at Daytona International Speedway. The new points system across NASCAR’s touring series has made things slightly less climatic from the prior “win and your in” format. However, Friday night’s Winn-Dixie 250 at Daytona will have a very intriguing storyline surrounding the final 4 spots in the 12-car field for the Chase. As things currently stand, William Sawalich, Brent Crews, and Taylor Gray are separated by just one point for the final spot in the points standings. Needless to say, the fate of all drivers fighting for the final 4 Chase positions ultimately hinges on surviving the sheer, chaotic unpredictability that defines superspeedway racing at Daytona!
While the points battle for the remaining Chase spots will be among the main storylines late Friday night, our focus shifts towards not necessarily identifying the drivers that will have a strong points day but ultimately trying to identify the driver that will visit victory lane. We understand the superspeedway racing at Daytona is extremely unpredictable. For that reason, these superspeedway races are not necessarily friendly for handicappers and bettors alike. However, the boost in betting odds that encompass this style of racing does make things very enticing for those chasing the possibility of a big payday! This week our goal is simple. We are not trying to find discrepancies in H2H match-ups or find drivers that are overvalued or undervalued from an odds perspective. We are simply trying to identify the drivers that have the best chance to score a victory and give us a fat winning ticket!
Throughout this weekend’s regular season finales in both the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Cup Series, our main focus will be creating a sharp betting lineup that identifies potential winners and maintains a strong ROI threshold. The good news about betting superspeedway races is that betting odds normally allow bettors the opportunity to select anywhere from 5-6 drivers while maintaining equal or even better ROI than our traditional betting cards. We simply have to make sure that we are not oversaturing our lineup with batting favorites and are identifying true dark horses in every range of betting odds. If we accomplish those objectives, we will have an optimal long-term strategy and we just need a little luck to fall our way for an imminent payout!
Daytona – O’Reilly Notes
- Austin Hill leads all active drives with 4 career wins at Daytona.
- Jeremy Clements (2022), Justin Allgaier (2023), and Jesse Love (2025) are also former winners at Daytona.
- Austin Hill has 11 superspeedway wins across Atlanta, Daytona, and Talladega.
- Nick Sanchez (Atlanta), Sheldon Creed (Atlanta), Justin Allgaier (Atlanta), Jeb Burton (Talladega (2)), Jesse Love (Talladega), Sammy Smith (Talladega), and Corey Day (Talladega) are former superspeedway winners.
- Justin Allgaier has finished in the Top 5 in 6 of the last 10 races at Daytona.
- Sammy Smith has finished in the Top 5 in each of the last two races at Daytona.
- Sam Mayer has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of the last 3 races at Daytona.
- Ryan Sieg has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 7 races at Daytona.
- Sheldon Creed has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Daytona.
- Jesse Love has finished 9th or better in the last 3 races at Daytona.
- Carson Kvapil has finished 10th or better in all 3 career starts at Daytona.
- Chevrolet drivers have won 9 of the last 10 races at Daytona.
- There have been at least 7 cautions in each of the last 5 races at Daytona.
- The race winner has started from the pole in each of the last two races at Daytona.
Superspeedway Data
The below data is relatively self-explanatory but it highlights how all of the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series drivers have performed at the superspeedways thus far in 2026. To date, the O’Reilly Series has held 4 superspeedway races from Daytona, Talladega, and twice at Atlanta. While performance results are not guaranteed to carry over to tomorrow’s Winn-Dixie 250, we can look at the average driver ratings and avg. running positions to identify the drivers that are consistently running towards the front of the field as opposed to drivers that are just finishing strong or poorly. Therefore, the performance data below should be helpful towards our handicapping angles this week.
| Driver | Avg Driver Rating | Starts | Avg. Start | Avg. Finish | Avg. Position |
|---|
| Jesse Love | 102.7 | 4 | 4.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 |
| Sammy Smith | 98.5 | 4 | 9.5 | 14.3 | 9.3 |
| Sheldon Creed | 98.2 | 4 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 10.8 |
| Carson Kvapil | 94.5 | 4 | 5.8 | 15.8 | 9.0 |
| Austin Hill | 92.2 | 4 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 9.3 |
| Justin Allgaier | 91.9 | 4 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 12.0 |
| Corey Day | 91.0 | 4 | 7.8 | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 88.3 | 4 | 22.8 | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| Rajah Caruth | 88.1 | 4 | 7.0 | 14.3 | 9.0 |
| Brandon Jones | 87.3 | 4 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 13.5 |
| Sam Mayer | 86.5 | 4 | 1.8 | 23.3 | 18.5 |
| Jeremy Clements | 84.3 | 4 | 22.5 | 19.0 | 16.0 |
| Dean Thompson | 80.7 | 4 | 18.8 | 16.5 | 18.3 |
| Taylor Gray | 76.1 | 4 | 11.8 | 24.8 | 16.3 |
| William Sawalich | 75.4 | 4 | 7.3 | 20.3 | 13.8 |
| Austin Green | 74.6 | 3 | 30.7 | 17.7 | 18.0 |
| Nick Sanchez | 73.4 | 3 | 24.7 | 19.3 | 16.7 |
| Ryan Sieg | 63.1 | 4 | 13.3 | 19.3 | 22.5 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 61.8 | 4 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 21.5 |
| Jeb Burton | 61.4 | 4 | 23.0 | 26.0 | 19.3 |
| Blaine Perkins | 60.8 | 4 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 |
| Brennan Poole | 60.2 | 4 | 30.5 | 15.8 | 21.3 |
| Harrison Burton | 59.3 | 4 | 23.0 | 31.0 | 25.8 |
| Josh Williams | 57.8 | 3 | 18.7 | 32.0 | 23.3 |
| Kyle Sieg | 56.5 | 4 | 25.5 | 19.8 | 25.0 |
| Patrick Staropoli | 55.1 | 4 | 11.5 | 20.3 | 25.0 |
| Mason Maggio | 54.4 | 4 | 19.5 | 23.0 | 26.5 |
| Josh Bilicki | 53.4 | 4 | 34.5 | 14.5 | 24.5 |
| Garrett Smithley | 53.3 | 3 | 30.7 | 13.3 | 25.3 |
| Lavar Scott | 50.9 | 4 | 33.8 | 23.0 | 24.5 |
| Ryan Ellis | 45.2 | 4 | 26.5 | 21.8 | 26.3 |
| Joey Gase | 39.4 | 3 | 26.0 | 30.0 | 31.7 |
Betting Targets
Obviously it goes without much explanation but Austin Hill will continue to be the deserving outright betting favorite any time he suits up in the O’Reilly Series. Hill’s success at the superspeedways has been well-documented and he has been extremely strong at Daytona where it is somewhat easier to control the front of the field as opposed to Talladega where the racing surface is much wider. Hill has averaged a lucrative 113.7 average driver rating in 8 of the last 9 races at Daytona and will once again be the guy to beat going into Friday’s Winn-Dixie 250. From a betting perspective, I believe Hill is nearly impossible to bet unless you are going to include him in a parlay.
The reason I say that is because putting Hill in your lineup absolutely ruins your overall ROI based on current betting odds. A similar sentiment can be made for Jesse Love and he has a much lower win percentage than Hill at the superspeedways despite being one of the top superspeedway talents in the field. In order to find the type of value to be considered for true betting options, I believe we have to pivot back to the likes of Carson Kvapil and Sammy Smith. Both drivers are underrated superspeedway talents. Kvapil has been red-hot in recent weeks and Smith is in desperate need of a victory due to the fact that his future is uncertain. Deeper value options include guys like Rajah Caruth, Ryan Sieg, and Parker Retzlaff are among the drivers that are providing strong value and have winning ceilings. Personally, I like Caruth the best out of that group because he is very aggressive and will make moves to win the race!
2026 Winn-Dixie 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Sheldon Creed +1000 (1 unit)
Carson Kvapil +1200 (.75 unit)
Sammy Smith +1500 (.75 unit)
Rajah Caruth +2200 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Anthony Alfredo +4000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Brennan Poole +450 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Austin Hill +300 wins Winn-Dixie 250
Toyota +215 wins Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking .75 unit to win:
+870
