5-Hour Energy 400 Fantasy Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Sprint Cup Racing returns to the Saturday night stage this weekend with the running of the 5-Hour Energy 400 at Kansas Speedway. Despite being one of the newest tracks in NASCAR, Kansas Speedway has built a reputation for providing exciting action packed racing. This Saturday the bar will be raised when the green flag drops for the first night race at Kansas Speedway while inadvertently creating the perfect prelude to next week’s All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Kansas Speedway has hosted just 16 events since the first inaugural race back in 2001 which was won by Jeff Gordon. Gordon actually won the first two races at Kansas going back to back in 2002. Since Gordon’s first two wins, several other drivers have also visited victory lane on two separate occasions. Gordon along with Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson have amassed 10 of the 14 wins currently held among active drivers.
Past performances in general have been a fairly reliable indicator at Kansas through the past few years. There are a handful of drivers that seem to stay in contention when Kansas rolls around on the schedule. It may be of little surprise that those same drivers have a solid resume at Chicagoland Speedway as well which is known as the sister track to Kansas Speedway. With that information at our fingertips, we would like to provide a quick rundown of a few guys that you must have on your fantasy roster this Saturday night.
The first guy that everyone should have on their roster is the six-time champion Jimmie Johnson. I know Johnson has yet to win this season and he is often over valued on a weekly basis. However, nobody can deny what Johnson has been able to do at Kansas Speedway. Johnson has posted 10 straight Top 10 finishes and has finished inside the top 10 in 13 of his 15 career starts at Kansas Speedway. Johnson’s last 10 starts at Kansas has yielded a 4.4 average finish. To put things in perspective, that is the best average finish of any driver in NASCAR in their last 10 starts at a specific track. From a fantasy perspective that is not necessarily decided on wins, Johnson is your best bet for this weekend’s race.
Among the remaining favorites, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick have to be considered the cream of the crop. Harvick found victory lane in NASCAR’s most recent trip to Kansas during last season’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Harvick dominated that event from the pole position to lead 138 of the 267 scheduled laps. If you consider the type of season Harvick has had thus far in 2014, it would not be the least bit surprising to see another encore performance. Kenseth on the other hand is an equally dangerous threat this weekend. Kenseth has won 2 of the last 3 races at Kansas Speedway since the track’s reconfiguration in 2012. Kenseth has been extremely consistent as well finishing 11th or better in each of the past 8 races. In fact from a consistency standpoint, Kenseth has nearly as strong as Johnson during the past 8 races at Kansas.
Outside of your big favorites, we would like to mention a few other drivers this week. Kyle Busch has been one of the strongest drivers on the 1.5-2 mile tracks this season. However for those unaware, Kansas has been one of Busch’s worst tracks on the entire NASCAR circuit. If you were considering Busch this weekend, just listen to this fact: In 13 career starts, Busch has yet to capture a top 5 finish. Another driver that also opened as one of the favorites this week that you may want to stay away from includes Joey Logano. Logano has just 1 top 5 finish in 9 career starts and has put together an extremely poor 23.67 average finish.
Finally if you are looking for a few drivers that may hold some significant value this week, we wanted to point out a few potential dark horses. However, we would also like to mention that it may be beneficial for bettors and fantasy owners to wait until qualifying has concluded before finishing their rosters. Normally we do not pay a lot of attention towards starting positions but Kansas may be an exception to the rule. Track position has played a huge factor in the last few races at Kansas and the winning driver has started from the top 12 positions in 12 of the 16 races held at Kansas Speedway.
While we will keep our eye on qualifying this week, we are already keeping an eye on drivers like Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, and perhaps even Martin Truex Jr as a fantasy value play. Biffle and Gordon may not be a big surprise considering both drivers have two wins each at Kansas. Biffle has been running strong since Texas and Gordon has been knocking on the door all year. Gordon has run better than any other driver without a win and this will be another good opportunity for the #24 team this weekend. As far as Martin Truex Jr is concerned, obviously we do not expect Truex Jr to win this Saturday’s race. However he may be a solid fantasy play depending on your league’s salary cap. Truex posted two runner-up finishes in 2012 and another 4th place finish last season. Truex’s crew chief Todd Berrier helped fine tune Kurt Busch’s car to a 2nd place in the #78 cars most recent outing at Kansas and he just may be a guy to keep in mind as this week progresses.
Sprint Cup drivers and teams will get their first taste of Kansas Speedway in the first of two scheduled practice sessions this Friday at 12:00pm eastern. Check back later for full practice recaps, qualifying results, previews, and race picks for the 5-Hour Energy 400.
