2022 Toyota 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 4th, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway
TV: FS1

The Camping World Truck Series returns to World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway this weekend for the running of the Toyota 200. On Friday, Corey Heim earned the Cometic Gasket Pole in the #51 truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports. Heim posted an extremely fast lap at 138.232 mph which was not far off from the track record. As a result, Heim will get the opportunity to lead the field to the green flag early Saturday to kick off an action packed weekend of racing in St. Louis.

John Hunter Nemechek, who qualified 6th, is currently the overall betting favorite at the majority of online sportsbooks. Nemechek is the only former Gateway winner in the field with a victory back in 2017. However, Nemechek has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts at Gateway and could have been perceived as the worst of the Kyle Busch Motorsports’ drivers during Friday’s on-track activities. As a result, I cannot justify betting on Nemechek this week with his over-saturated betting odds.

If we learned anything during Friday’s on-track activities, it was the simple fact that this race could be wide open. I don’t think anyone deserves the title of a “heavy favorite” going into Saturday. Sure, the KBM trucks that included Heim, Chandler Smith, and Nemechek displayed plenty of speed to go challenge for a victory. However, I would not rule out the possibility of a “surprise” winner on Saturday either. Guys like Christian Eckes, Ty Majeski, and Carson Hocevar have been knocking on victory lane’s door and perhaps Saturday’s Toyota 200 will provide those drivers another opportunity to get a victory!

Betting and Practice Notes

For those that may not be familiar with World Wide Technology Raceway, it is a 1.250 egg shaped oval that is very flat. In fact, drivers will be shifting in turns 1-2 in both the Trucks and Cup Series this weekend meaning drivers that excel in shifting conditions should be given extra consideration. Outside of the shifting narrative, Gateway is a really flat surface where drivers will need to roll the corner. If you overdrive the corners at Gateway, the right-front will be burnt in just a handful of laps. From a handicapping perspective, I always give drivers that excel on flatter surfaces an extra nod of the cap at Gateway. In the Truck Series, that narrative favors drivers like Grant Enfinger and Chandler Smith who are among the better flat-surface drivers in the series.

In Friday’s brief practice session, I was mostly impressed with Ty Majeski and Derek Kraus based on pre-practice expectations. Majeski had really good pace in race trim and has been on a hot streak in recent weeks with top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races. Kraus has not experienced the same results in recent weeks. In fact, the #19 team has been “off” for the most part of the 2022 season. However, Kraus was among the top overall drivers on the speed charts and the team appears confident they will have a fast ride on Saturday. Other more obvious observations included top-tier speed from the likes of Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek. Both drivers are extremely capable of getting to victory lane on Saturday but I’m just not a fan of either driver’s betting value. On the other side of the spectrum, guys like Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Tyler Ankrum were drivers that I thought underperformed in Friday’s session. Ankrum and Rhodes appeared to be down on speed based on where we would expect those talents.

Betting Targets

I’m not seeing a lot of betting value in terms of the outright victory (futures). There are a lot of drivers in the sub 10-1 odds range which includes several drivers that are searching for their first victory in the Truck Series. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t believe anyone is a clear-cut favorite for tomorrow’s race which means track position, execution, and restarts could easily decide how this race unfolds. For that reason, I will continue to put the majority of focus towards H2H bets.

In terms of H2H targets, I have Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith, and Ty Majeski as my main targets in match-up situations. I rarely back Friesen simply because he has burned me so much during his Truck Series career. However, I consider the #52 a sharp pick that can be pursued in all betting formats for tomorrow’s Toyota 200. Friesen has finished in the top 5 in each of the last two races at Gateway and the #52 team has been showing terrific speed in recent weeks. In fact, I would consider Friesen as the best value option among the top drivers. Meanwhile, Smith and Majeski are drivers that continue to show their improvement and progression from week to week. I think both drivers have a great opportunity to keep their momentum going on Saturday. The only thing I would say about both Smith and Majeski is that odds-makers are starting to overvalue their betting odds and that is slightly concerning as we move forward.

Draftkings Toyota 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Toyota 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chandler Smith +550 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1000 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +1100 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Derek Kraus -130 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Stewart Friesen -150 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)
Chase Purdy +2000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)