2025 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 3rd, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: CW

Last week,8 Austin Hill earned his 3rd victory of the season following a controversial finish at Talladega Superspeedway. The win marked Hill’s 4th consecutive season in Xfinity Series competition with multiple wins and was his 11th over the last 3 seasons. On Saturday, Hill will attempt to keep the momentum going when he leads the field to the green flag for the running of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. Hill was awarded the pole position due to the fact that Xfinity Series practice and qualifying was rained out. As a result, Hill will have the opportunity to start from the top spot when the green flag waves Saturday afternoon!

One of the bigger storylines that has developed this week in the wake of last week’s controversial finish at Talladega is the fact that Connor Zilisch will miss this weekend’s race at Texas. Zilisch was leading on the final lap last week when he was spun by Jesse Love. Zilisch crashed hard in the inside retaining wall which brought out the controversial timed caution which awarded Hill the victory. In the accident, Zilisch suffered a lower back injury that will keep him sidelined for at least one week. In replace of Zilisch, Cup Series superstar Kyle Larson will step into the #88 for J.R. Motorsports. Larson has dominated each of his two prior appearances in Xfinity Series competition this season which was at Homestead and Bristol. Larson captured a victory at Bristol but was beaten by a late caution and restart at Homestead. Either way, Larson’s elite talent will catapult the #88 into the heavy betting favorite status going into tomorrow’s race.

Perhaps more importantly, tomorrow’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 has become even more difficult to handicap on the basis that on-track activities were cancelled Friday due to Mother Nature. Instead of using on-track observations this weekend to aid our handicapping, we will have to look back to how drivers have performed at Texas historically and perhaps most importantly examine performance trends at the 1.5 mile venues from Xfinity Series organizations and teams. Since the 1.5 mile tracks usually trend confidently with performance, our handicapping must consider those performance trends before making any betting selections. With those things considered, we will tread relatively lightly towards our bets for Saturday’s race unless we find unprecedented value in either futures or H2H formats.

Xfinity Series Notes – Texas

• Kyle Larson (2016), Harrison Burton (2020), and Sam Mayer (2024) are the only former Texas winners in the field.
• Justin Allgaier has produced a lucrative 140+ average driver rating in each of the past two races at Texas.
• Austin Hill (102.9) and Brandon Jones (101.8) are the only other drivers that have averaged a 100+ rating in the last two races at Texas.
• Austin Hill has finished 7th or better in each of the last 4 starts at Texas.
• Sammy Smith has finished 8th and 3rd in two career starts at Texas.
• Justin Allgaier has finished in the top 5 in 5 of the last 6 races at Texas.
• Despite winning last year, Sam Mayer has led just 5 laps in 5 career starts at Texas.
• Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, Sam Mayer, and Jesse Love have produced 100+ average driver ratings over the last 4 races at 1.5 mile venues.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.
• There have been at least 9 cautions in 9 of the last 10 races at Texas.

Betting Targets

Without overthinking anything for Saturday’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300, Kyle Larson deserves to be the outright betting favorite and I believe he is stepping into an even stronger ride in the #88 compared to the part-time #17 that he usually pilots for Hendrick Motorsports. Over the last several years, Larson has won 8 of his last 15 starts in Xfinity Series competition going back to 2018. Needless to say, this should be another great opportunity for NASCAR’s biggest star. With that being said, Justin Allgaier has been incredibly good at the 1.5 mile tracks and the #7 team has been fast every week this season. At much better betting odds, I believe it would be criminal to not give Allgaier a ton of legitimate betting consideration.

Behind the top two guys, I believe it becomes a bigger guessing game. We know from performance trends that Austin Hill, Sam Mayer, and Jesse Love have been very strong on the 1.5 mile tracks. I personally like the Richard Childress Racing duo of Hill and Love as potential sleepers. However, Riley Herbst is listed at even better odds. Herbst will be making a part-time start in the no. 19 for Joe Gibbs Racing which has been very fast throughout the season. Herbst was always a strong driver at the high-speed tracks throughout his Xfinity Series career. With that being said, I personally like Herbst better in prop and H2H formats. If you are looking for some fliers in prop or fantasy formats, I would suggest Corey Day and William Sawalich as low priced drivers that will be starting from the rear. Meanwhile, Ryan Sieg and Taylor Gray are intermediate pivots that may have higher ceilings than current odds suggest which is ideal in plus value (prop) formats.

Draftkings 2025 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Justin Allgaier +500 (1.5 units)
Jesse Love +1600 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props