2025 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday August 16th, 2025. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: USA

Last week, Shane Van Gisbergen continued to flex his muscles on the road courses by capturing his 4th victory of the season at Watkins Glen International. Despite not winning until the middle of June, SVG’s hot streak of victories has now moved him solely into the 3rd position in terms of playoff points and just a mere two points away from Denny Hamlin who currently has the most playoff points (24) in the Cup Series. With just two races remaining in the regular season, drivers are running out of time to amass those precious playoff points which will be extremely critical for the final 10-race stretch to decide the championship.

On Saturday, the Cup Series will race under the lights at Richmond Raceway for the running of the Cook Out 400. In many ways, Saturday’s race at Richmond is the last opportunity for drivers and teams to solidify their playoff hopes because next week’s season finale at Daytona is ultimately a crapshoot. For those that remember, last year’s race at Richmond was among the most controversial finishes in recent memory. In that race, Austin Dillon wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin in the final turn to win the race. While Dillon’s victory held up, NASCAR revoked Dillon’s playoff berth after claiming his actions were “detrimental to the sport.”

The reason I bring up those storylines from last year is because it paints the picture of what drivers/teams are willing to do in effort to win a race and clinch a playoff spot. For those drivers currently outside of the playoff transfer spots, rest assured those teams and drivers will be trying to find any way possible to steal a win and automatic bid to the postseason. In regards to Saturday’s Cook Out 400, bettors must try to identify any drivers that could potentially play spoiler like Austin Dillon accomplished a year ago. Despite the controversial ending, Dillon did have the best car under green flag conditions which nobody expected last season. Therefore, we will assess all of the competitors in the Cook Out 400 in an attempt to find those drivers that could produce quality performances late Saturday night and help us cash some winning tickets!

Handicapping Strategy

In the handicapping world, every short track is rather unique in layout and design which means there are different things that we look for when handicapping these events. For Richmond, the track is a ¾ mile D-shaped oval with relatively flat banking. In fact, I would compare the banking in the corners to tracks like Loudon and Phoenix in comparison. The biggest difference with Richmond is that the surface of the track has a lot less grip and produces more significant tire wear. For this race specifically, Goodyear has brought a new tire that is projected to produce more tire wear and that should be beneficial for fans that would like to see more variance in the racing product. For these reasons, I believe the biggest handicapping angle that bettors can rely on is historical performances specifically at Richmond. While we can also look to other short tracks for comparisons, I would place historical trends at Richmond over all other handicapping angles! Once we establish the historical trends and metrics below, we will also consider comparable recent performances at similar tracks, evaluate recency bias and momentum, and observe practice speeds in hopes to solidify our expectations for Saturday!

Richmond – Cup Notes

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin (5), Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, and Austin Dillon are all former winners at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin has finished 1st (2) or 2nd (4) in 6 of the last 8 races at Richmond.
• Christopher Bell has finished 6th or better in 7 of the last 8 races at Richmond.
• Joey Logano has finished 7th or better in 8 of the last 9 races at Richmond.
• Kyle Larson has finished 7th or better in 8 of his last 9 starts at Richmond
• Kyle Busch has finished in the Top 10 in 7 of the last 10 races at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin (114.5) and Joey Logano (102.7) are the only two drivers that have +100 average driver ratings in the Next Gen Car at Richmond.
• Josh Berry has the highest place differential average in the Next Gen Car averaging +12 spots over each start at Richmond.
• Alex Bowman’s win in 2021 is his only Top 5 finish in 17 career starts at Richmond. Bowman has a 19.4 career average finishing position at Richmond.
• Ryan Blaney has just 3 Top 10 finishes in 17 career starts at Richmond. Blaney has a 19.5 career average finishing position at Richmond.
• Alex Bowman (73.7), Chase Briscoe (67.7), and Carson Hocevar (58.8) are notable drivers with poor average driver ratings at Richmond in the Next Gen Car
• There have been 5 cautions or less in 11 of the last 12 races at Richmond.
• The eventual race winner has started outside the Top 10 in 4 of the last 6 races at Richmond.

Practice Observations

Practice times were split into two groups on Friday. Kyle Busch led the first group with the fastest lap of the session and also backed up the fast time with impressive consistency on the speed charts. Busch appeared to be the fastest car over the first 15-20 laps before tire fall off became apparent. Kyle Larson appeared to have the best long run speed in the opening session. Larson’s lap times really started to shine after the lap 20 mark which is noteworthy because Richmond often produces long green flag runs. In the opening session, Ty Dillon was perhaps the biggest surprise story of the session. Dillon posted very impressive lap times over the entire session which definitely raises his ceiling going into Saturday. Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, and Josh Berry were among the drivers towards the bottom of the speed charts from the opening session that we would have expected to be much faster but apparently struggled in the speed department.

The second group in practice had more of the typical “big” names in the field. In that session, Denny Hamlin clearly stood out as the driver to beat. Hamlin posted single lap speeds that rivaled the fast times of the first session despite the track losing speed. More importantly, Hamlin’s long-run speed looked really impressive as well. Behind Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Chase Elliott were all among the drivers that displayed solid long-run speed. Personally, I thought Bell and Elliott had some of the best long-run speed but it was hard to tell with the cautions during practice. About mid-way through the second session, Joey Logano cut down a tire and hit the outside wall. Logano’s practice speeds until that point were less than stellar however the team appeared to believe that the tire had a slow leak which would have obviously impacted their practice speed. It was unclear whether Logano would need a backup car immediately following practice. Other drivers that also had relatively rough practice sessions in the 2nd group included the likes of Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick.

Betting Targets

As stated above, I believe that track history is our primary handicapping angle this week. Needless to say, Denny Hamlin has the best track history out of anyone in the Cup Series. Hamlin has finished 1st or 2nd in 4 of 6 races at Richmond in the Next Gen Car. The fact that Hamlin was also among the strongest cars in practice only strengthens the argument for the #11 car being the top threat going into Saturday night’s main event. The added fact that tire wear is expected to be an even bigger factor this week also plays into the hand of Hamlin who is among the best in the series at managing tire wear. Therefore, I believe Hamlin is the top option going into Saturday by a relatively wide margin.

Behind Hamlin, it becomes a broader guessing game. Christopher Bell has been very strong on the short tracks over the last two seasons and is hitting on nearly all handicapping metrics. Likewise, Chase Elliott is also hitting on several handicapping metrics and displayed excellent long-run speed in practice. As a result, both Bell and Elliott should be given legitimate betting consideration. Personally, I believe Joey Logano has been the 2nd best driver at Richmond behind Hamlin. However, Logano is starting behind the 8-ball after wrecking in practice and failing to qualify. Despite those concerns, Logano is getting value north of 20-1 betting odds which brings him into consideration in all formats.

On Friday, Ryan Preece won the pole for the Cook Out 400 which was his first pole of the season. Preece has been the biggest surprise story this season from RFK Racing and has the skill set to compete at Richmond. Unfortunately, Preece’s betting odds have significantly declined. In fact, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson have better odds than Preece at the moment. While those drivers are not exactly hitting on many handicapping metrics, I still believe they have a more probable upside than the pole winner. Byron has been so strong everywhere this season that he likely deserves the most consideration. Deeper into the field, Kyle Busch and Josh Berry are drivers that I expect to move forward once the green flag drops and I would target in H2H formats. Lastly, Ty Dillon and Corey Heim are drivers receiving enormous betting odds which may pay off in prop bet and fantasy formats.

2025 Draftkings Cook Out 400 Optimal Lineup

2025 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Chase Elliott +700 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Brad Keselowski -160 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
William Byron -115 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Average Speed of Race over 97.5 (-125)(2 units) *Caesars*
Joey Logano +135 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
Erik Jones +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 Top Toyota (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Denny Hamlin +225 wins Cook Out 400
Josh Berry +150 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +700