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2025 United Rentals 250 Race Picks

2025 United Rentals 250 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday October 18th, 2025. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: CW

Last week, Aric Almirola stole a win away from the Xfinity Series playoff contenders with his victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the opening race of the Round of 8. As a result, all 8 championship contenders are still battling for the right to earn a championship ticket to Phoenix which will either be granted by a victory over the next two weeks or by advancing on points. On Saturday, those championship implications will reach a fever pitch when the Xfinity Series goes superspeedway racing at Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the United Rentals 250.

While most of the heavy storylines will surround the playoff contenders, we know the reality of racing at Talladega opens the door for all competitors to contend for a victory. In fact, it could easily be argued that Talladega has yielded more surprise winners than any other track on the NASCAR circuit. As a result, Talladega presents a unique conundrum for bettors which includes uncertainty but big rewards for those lucky enough to cash a winning ticket. As a result, we will put our best foot forward towards identifying the drivers that have consistently put themselves in position to potentially battle for a victory on Saturday!

From a strategy perspective, our picks must include drivers that have legitimate winning upside but our betting cards should be constructed in a way that provides selections that are statistically sound. While we know that drivers like Austin Hill and Jesse Love will be heavy favorites due to their impressive resumes on the superspeedways, betting odds are pretty generous for the majority of drivers competing on Saturday. For that reason, we must make sure we are taking enough drivers to increase our probability of cashing a winning ticket while also ensuring that the betting odds on each selection can sustain sufficient ROI for our entire betting card.

Talladega – Xfinity Notes

  • Jeb Burton leads all active drivers with two career wins at Talladega.
  • Aric Almirola, Jesse Love, Sammy Smith, and Austin Hill are all former winners at Talladega.
  • Austin Hill leads all active drivers with 9 career wins on superspeedway style drafting tracks.
  • Jesse Love has one victory and finished no worse than 6th in all 3 career starts at Talladega.
  • Jeb Burton has finished 9th or better in 7 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
  • Brennan Poole has finished 9th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Talladega.
  • Sheldon Creed has finished 9th or better in each of the last 4 races at Talladega.
  • Ryan Sieg has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
  • Leland Honeyman has finished 14th or better in all 3 career starts at Talladega.
  • Jesse Love (113.0), Austin Hill (106.6), and Sheldon Creed (101.4) are the only drivers with a +100 average driver rating on the superspeedways (5 races) this season.
  • There have been 6 cautions or less in 4 of the last 5 races at Talladega.
  • The eventual race winner has started in the Top 10 in 9 of the last 12 races at Talladega.
  • Chevrolet drivers have won the last 12 races at Talladega.

Dynamic Averages

Note: The following data represents performance metrics from the previous 5 superspeedway races this season and should be used as a handicapping baseline to identify drivers who have consistently run towards the front of the field and/or produced quality finishing positions.

DriverAvg. RatingAvg. StartAvg. Mid RaceAvg. FinishAvg. Pos.Pass Diff.Fastest LapLaps LedTotal Laps
Jesse Love113.25.24.66.06.4-621110669
Austin Hill106.62.87.017.210.0-4629229619
Sheldon Creed101.412.411.215.010.8491256547
Justin Allgaier94.25.814.011.611.2-11718548
Connor Zilisch91.810.09.218.611.401354648
Sam Mayer90.910.412.412.010.6-171120647
Carson Kvapil90.913.616.811.215.04393669
Jeb Burton89.517.413.812.014.01501311669
Aric Almirola89.118.012.816.812.5411149529
Taylor Gray88.57.08.617.811.8341215621
Harrison Burton85.319.415.210.614.0-871669
Sammy Smith82.711.212.418.815.0-71320539
Nick Sanchez82.115.621.415.816.4922019602
Ryan Sieg74.519.618.227.215.869929510
Dean Thompson72.420.617.215.818.618100655
Matt DiBenedetto71.327.617.215.217.62480661
Christian Eckes69.910.619.823.415.236142661
Brandon Jones69.68.217.819.619.0-26813547
Leland Honeyman69.527.618.216.017.217171667
Jeffrey Clements67.820.217.818.422.06281654
Daniel Dye66.614.420.219.620.4-6250540
William Sawalich66.214.017.024.419.8-2490464
Blaine Perkins63.524.025.819.224.21120622
Anthony Alfredo58.824.221.626.222.280131499
Ryan Ellis57.323.625.017.823.2-6550668
Brennan Poole56.226.024.218.424.217110648
Josh Williams54.416.223.427.222.8-7370498
Joey Gase48.727.624.619.226.6-4640669
Kyle Sieg48.025.428.225.626.8-4780555
Garrett Smithley45.634.024.021.527.3-9161525
Parker Retzlaff41.124.231.233.829.4-140366
Mason Maggio39.133.329.323.829.3-5230532
Caesar Bacarella37.337.034.723.731.7434337

Betting Targets

Currently, there are 3 drivers that are getting the most attention from odds-makers which include Austin Hill, Connor Zilisch, and Jesse Love. All 3 of those drivers have credible arguments to be the outright betting favorite. Hill has been the most successful at this style of racing while Zilisch has won nearly everything this season. However, I still lean towards Jesse Love as the outright betting favorite and perhaps my #1 rated driver. Love has been excellent at Talladega and has statistically produced the best stats this season on the superspeedways. As a result, I would like to have exposure to Love on my betting card even if it is in parlay and H2H formats.

Behind the “Big 3,” betting odds are much better in terms of value. Without question, Aric Almirola and Sheldon Creed are my favorite targets in that 2nd-tier group of drivers. Almirola is behind one of the fastest cars in the series and has a great superspeedway resume. Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed is one of the most underrated superspeedway talents in the series despite not having any wins to show for it. With both drivers getting near 20-1 odds, I think both are worthy of imminent consideration. To be fair, Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, Nick Sanchez, and Ryan Sieg are additional names that have shown a lot of strong performances at the superspeedways. Personally, I just wish those drivers had a little better betting value based on current odds.

If we look deeper into the field, Jeb Burton and Taylor Gray both have some appeal for different reasons. Burton has proved to be one of the better superspeedway talents in the field and consistently gets solid value because he pilots equipment that is not among the top teams in the garage. Gray may not have the superspeedway resume but has shown enough flashes of that skill set to warrant consideration at his current odds. It also helps that Gray is part of one of the strongest teams in the series and would be among those that would benefit from some teammate help. For true long shots, I would point to the likes of Dean Thompson and Brennan Poole as drivers that have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. It’s more likely that Thompson and Poole’s ceilings are in the Top 5 or Top 10 range but at Talladega anything is possible. As a result, I believe both drivers can be considered in all formats at lottery style betting odds.

2025 Draftkings United Rentals 250 Optimal Lineup

***TBD after Qualifying***

2025 United Rentals 250 Race Picks

*More plays may be added closer to race time. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Aric Almirola +1600 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1600 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1800 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +2500 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +3000 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Brennan Poole +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Dean Thompson +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +475 wins Group A (Hill, Love, Smith)(.5 unit) *Bovada*
Sammy Smith +475 wins Group A (Hill, Love, Almirola)(.5 unit) *Bovada*
Sheldon Creed +450 wins Group B (Zilisch, Allgaier, Mayer)(.5 unit) *Bovada*

Two Team Parlay

Jesse Love +550 wins United Rentals 250
Ford +160 wins Yellawood 500
Risking .75 unit to win: +1200