2025 Yellawood 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday October 19th, 2025. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: NBC

The biggest wildcard race in the entire playoffs will unfold on Sunday on the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway with the running of the Yellawood 500. Last week, Denny Hamlin became the first driver to secure a championship ticket to Phoenix with his victory at Las Vegas. However, there are 7 drivers that are still fighting for their championship ticket and will be hoping to survive the chaos known as superspeedway racing. However, there are also 30 or so additional drivers that believe that drafting style racing at Talladega will create an opportunity for a potential trip to victory lane and bettors will have to consider everyone going into Sunday!

While we know there are several drivers like Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin and others who are known for their strong superspeedway resumes, Talladega Superspeedway has produced 10 different winners in the last 10 races. Unlike Daytona and Atlanta which are similar drafting style tracks, Talladega has the widest racing surface of the superspeedways which means it is much harder for drivers out front to block and control the race from the lead. As a result, we have often seen last lap passes and cars essentially coming from nowhere in the final moments to earn a victory. While we cannot predict the drivers that may get that magical run to the checkers, we can ensure that we are placing our betting action towards drivers that consistently put themselves in position for a potential shot at victory.

Aside from handicapping drivers that consistently put themselves in position for a victory, the other most important strategy to superspeedway racing is maintaining a betting card that has sufficient ROI. It is easy to get carried away and enticed by all of the big betting odds that accompany superspeedway racing and it is easy for bettors to lose focus of their risk vs. reward when compiling betting cards. Betting value will be a major focus of how we compile our betting card for Sunday’s Yellawood 500 and ensure that each bet has the appropriate risk vs. reward. With that being stated, I have typically approached these superspeedway races in conservative fashion due to the unpredictable nature of this style of racing. However, this may be our final chance of the season for a true big winner. For that reason, I may not be as conservative if betting odds offer the opportunities that we expect.

Talladega – Cup Notes

• Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 career wins at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney (3), Joey Logano (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Chase Elliott (2), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2), Kyle Busch (2), Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain are all former winners at Talladega.
• William Byron has the best average finishing position (9.2) among all drivers over the last 10 races at Talladega.
• Noah Gragson has finished 4th or better in 2 of the last 3 races at Talladega.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of the last 5 races at Talladega.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 1st (2) or 2nd in 3 of the last 6 races at Talladega.
• William Byron has finished 7th or better in the last 5 races at Talladega.
• Erik Jones has finished 9th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Talladega.
• Daniel Suarez has finished 11th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Talladega.
• Chase Briscoe has finished in the Top 15 in 5 of the last 6 races at Talladega.
• Joey Logano’s has finished 19th or worse in 9 of the last 10 races at Talladega.
• AJ Allmendinger has finished outside the Top 10 in 8 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
• Joey Logano (91.0), Ryan Blaney (90.0), Chase Elliott (89.0), William Byron (86.1), and Austin Cindric (85.9) have the highest average driver ratings at drafting style tracks in the Next Gen Car.
• There have been just 4 cautions in each of the last 4 races at Talladega.
• The eventual race winner has started 10th or worse in 8 of the last 9 races at Talladega.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 7 races at Talladega.

Dynamic Averages

Any time the superspeedway or drafting style tracks roll around, I like to take a peak at our dynamic averages that display performance metrics of the last 5 races. In fact, the dynamic averages currently reflect the prior 5 races this season at drafting style tracks and provides handicappers/bettors alike a solid baseline of expectations and data elements that can shed light into the drivers that are either consistently running upfront or putting themselves in position for wins late in these races. While these metrics are historical and do not guarantee any type of linear trends, I have found that it is often helpful to identify the drivers that are running well that may not always get the drafting/superspeedway style respect from the betting public. For that reason, I would encourage bettors to review these metrics going into Sunday’s Yellawood 500.

Betting Targets

Despite the fact that I have been very critical of odds makers throughout the season, current betting odds are relatively fair. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are perhaps rightfully listed as the betting favorite in the 10-1 range. Typically, I prefer to have Logano or Blaney on my betting card at the drafting style tracks. However, Logano has struggled with luck and performance in a lot of recent superspeedway races and I am willing to look away from the #22 simply based on that trend. Blaney has finished 1st or 2nd in 50% of the last 6 races and should be in the fight again on Sunday. Bettors will just have to decide if they want to take Blaney single-handedly or perhaps find parlay opportunities to create even better value.

Personally, I would rather lean towards the likes of Austin Cindric and Brad Keselowski among the guys getting favorite style odds. Cindric has been one of the best drivers in the Next Gen Car at the drafting tracks and won at Talladega back in the spring. Meanwhile, Keselowski leads all drivers with 6 career wins at Talladega and has been so close to #7 on several occasions in recent trips to Talladega. In the 15-1 odds range, I believe these drivers are some of my favorite targets among the favorites. With that said, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Tyler Reddick are additional names that are hitting numerous handicapping indicators. Larson has notoriously performed poorly on the superspeedways but has been very good in more recent attempts.

For deeper options in the field that have much higher numbers beside their names, Todd Gilliland, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones are names that offer some enticing attention. Jones has finished 9th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Talladega and Suarez has similar results during that same timespan. Meanwhile, Dillon has notoriously been hit or miss at the superspeedways but remains a serious threat if he is in contention in the final stages. Personally, I am not overly thrilled at the betting odds around these long shot drivers with the exception of Jones who is getting enough value to be considered in all formats; specifically prop bet formats. If you are looking for even bigger long shots, Shane Van Gisbergen and Noah Gragson are some really good choices to have legitimate Top 10 upside and perhaps Top 5 if things get really chaotic.

2025 Draftkings Yellawood 500 Optimal Lineup

2025 Yellawood 500 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Austin Cindric +1400 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1600 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +2200 (.5 unit)
Kyle Larson +2200 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2800 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +5000 (.25 unit)
Erik Jones +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Noah Gragson +1800 finishes Top Ford (.25 unit)
Todd Gilliland +2500 finishes Top Ford (.25 unit)
Cole Custer +3000 finishes Top Ford (.25 unit)
Average speed of race under 155.5(mph)-115 (2 units)

Two Team Parlays

Erik Jones +150 finishes Top 10
Ryan Blaney +700 wins Yellawood 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +950

Austin Hill +300 finishes Top 10
Chevrolet +135 wins Yellawood 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +450