2026 Andy’s Frozen Custard 340 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 2nd, 2026. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: CW

Last week, Corey Day captured his first career win in the Ag-Pro 300 at Talladega Superspeedway and cashed a 14-1 ticket in the process. Day became the 9th different winner through 11 races this season in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. The only driver that has won multiple races this season is Justin Allgaier who leads the point standings with 3 victories already this year. Later this afternoon, Allgaier will be one of the heavy favorites yet again after winning the pole for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 340 which means Allgaier will have the luxury to lead the field to the green flag this afternoon at Texas Motor Speedway!

While Allgaier seemed to have the fastest car during Friday’s on-track activities, today’s O’Reilly Auto Parts Series’ field is filled with Cup Series talents in the likes of Austin Dillon, Connor Zilisch, and Kyle Larson. Zilisch and Larson are piloting JR Motorsports and Hendrick Motorsports equipment which is the same as Allgaier. We saw last week at Talladega that the JRM/Hendrick cars have found a lot of horsepower at Talladega Superspeedway and those same cars have been very fast on the intermediate layouts already this season. Needless to say, there are plenty of drivers that have the speed to mix it up at the front of the field this afternoon.

Unfortunately, I view today’s O’Reilly Auto Parts Series’ event in similar fashion as yesterday’s Truck Series’ race at Texas. Betting odds have been awful for both races. The betting favorites in each race have had absolutely no betting value. In yesterday’s Truck Series race, I avoided betting on futures (win) all together due to poor odds. We did manage to nail a pair of H2H match-ups for a couple of units of profit. Therefore, there may be a good chance that we adopt a very similar betting approach today if we cannot find any betting value for the 2nd day in a row. To be fair, I do think there is some value on the drivers in the intermediate betting range. I just think there is an extremely high likelihood this is a two-horse race between Allgaier and Larson who don’t have any value based on current odds.

Texas – O’Reilly Notes

• Kyle Larson has the most wins (2) among active drivers at Texas.
• Harrison Burton and Sam Mayer are also former winners at Texas.
• Kyle Larson has won 2 of his last 3 starts at Texas. *Larson is the defending winner of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 340*
• Sam Mayer has finished in the Top 5 in the last two races at Texas.
• Justin Allgaier has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of the last 7 races at Texas.
• Austin Hill has finished 7th or better in the last 5 races at Texas.
• Sammy Smith has finished 8th or better in 2 of 3 career starts at Texas.
• Harrison Burton has finished 8th or better in 5 of 6 career starts at Texas.
• Jesse Love has finished 9th or better in two career starts at Texas.
• Ryan Sieg has finished 9th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.
• Sheldon Creed has finished 19th or worse in 3 of 5 career starts at Texas.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.
• The eventual race winner has started 10th or worse in the last 3 races at Texas.
• There have been 12 cautions or more in 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.

Practice Observations

In practice, I thought Justin Allgaier was clearly the best car on the track and that was before Allgaier put the #7 on the pole for today’s race. Allgaier led all drivers with the best 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap consecutive averages and it was by a fairly wide margin. Granted, many drivers were much closer to Allgaier in qualifying but in race-speed in practice; Allgaier appeared to be on a different level. Connor Zilisch and Kyle Larson were both solid on the speed charts as well which was expected. Austin Hill and Brandon Jones were among other drivers that were also very solid. Perhaps the biggest surprise in practice was Parker Retzlaff. Retzlaff was among the group of leaders in lap times and appears to be trending in a direction much higher than the #99 team’s expectations going into the weekend.

There were several drivers that did not appear to be on the right side of the speed charts in practice. Sheldon Creed, Jesse Love, Sammy Smith, and Sam Mayer were among the well-known names that appeared to be off in practice. The most notable name of that group was Jesse Love. The #2 team spent the entire practice making several changes to the car and struggled to find answers which rolled over into a disappointing 21st place qualifying effort. As a result, I have my eyes on names like Love, Creed, and others who have appeared to struggle throughout the entire weekend because those drivers could produce fade opportunities against the name brand.

Betting Targets

Once again, I don’t think there is much betting value in this race, especially among the favorites. Justin Allgaier has appeared to be the fastest car throughout the weekend and is getting better odds than Kyle Larson. While I expect Larson to be tough to beat, I don’t mind taking Allgaier at better odds especially when you consider how strong the #7 team has been all season. Behind those two drivers, Connor Zilisch is rightfully listed as the 3rd best betting favorite. I’m just not sure I have a lot of confidence in Zilisch getting the job done as fast as the duo of Larson and Allgaier have looked thus far.

If you are looking for potential dark horses, I believe Brent Crews and Austin Hill are the best betting options based on value. Brandon Jones and Corey Day likely deserve to be in that dark horse conversation. However, Crews and Hill are getting nearly twice the value. Hill has been excellent at Texas throughout his career and it kind of favors his high-speed car control. Meanwhile, Crews has been good everywhere this season and this is another track where he can make a big difference from behind the wheel. Personally, I think Hill is really underrated going into Saturday because the RCR cars somewhat struggled in practice. Even if the RCR cars have not been great, Hill has much higher upside than current odds suggest and is an ideal H2H target. Additional names that should produce strong results in fantasy formats include the likes of Harrison Burton and Jeb Burton who should move forward from their poor starting positions.

2026 Draftkings Andy’s Frozen Custard 340 Optimal Lineup

2026 Andy’s Frozen Custard 340 Race Picks

FINAL

Brandon Jones +900 (.5 unit)
Brent Crews +1800 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Prop Bets

Austin Hill -115 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Sheldon Creed -110 over Jesse Love (2 units)
Sammy Smith -110 over William Sawalich (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +300 wins Andy’s Frozen Custard 340
Kyle Larson +650 wins Wurth 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +1450