2026 HyVee Perks 250 Betting Race Picks
Date/Time: Saturday August 8th, 2026. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Iowa Speedway
TV: CW
Last week, NASCAR enjoyed the first “off” week of the season among all of their regular touring series. However, this action resumes this weekend with both the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Cup Series for racing at “The Fastest Short Track on the Planet”, also known as Iowa Speedway. All on-track activity will begin on Saturday and the O’Reilly Series will wave the green flag for the HyVee Perks 250 shortly after 5:00PM (EST). As a result, let’s discuss the drivers that will be competing for a checkered flag on Saturday and ultimately discuss the best betting options as racing returns to Iowa Speedway!
For starters, the entry list for Saturday’s HyVee Perks 250 is nothing overly special in terms of outside talent. Ross Chastain will be the only Cup Series driver that is competing. Chastain returns to the #9 team with JR Motorsports. Chastain has already competed 9 times this season in the O’Reilly Series with the highlight of the season coming with the win at Charlotte back in May. Outside of that victory, Chastain has just two other top 5 finishes and perhaps has been far less dominant than many would expect. With that said, Chastain did have a very strong performance in this race last year in the same car (#9) when he led 120 laps to bring home a 3rd place finish. As a result, I would not completely rule out Chastain’s chances to compete again on Saturday!
Aside from Chastain, this race will likely be decided among the O’Reilly Series regulars. Justin Allgaier has been the hottest driver in the series this season. Allgaier is a former winner at Iowa Speedway which came back in 2018. More importantly, Allgaier has racked up a career-best 6 wins this season in just 22 races and is also one of the best short-track talents in the field. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer has been the driver to beat over the last two years at Iowa Speedway since the O’Reilly Series returned to Iowa on an annual basis. Mayer has won each of the last two races at Iowa and accomplished both victories with separate teams. As a result, Mayer and Allgaier are among the heavy favorites going into Saturday’s HyVee Perks 250.
Analytical Sample
Since the O’Reilly Series has only raced at Iowa twice in the last 5 years, I did not want to rely solely on prior performances at Iowa this week from a handicapping perspective. While we will undoubtedly consider those races which were dominated by Sam Mayer with notable mentions of strong performances by Chastain and Jesse Love in last year’s event, I also wanted to expand our scope to evaluate how drivers/teams have performed at recent short track races this season. As a result, I compiled some performance metrics below from each of the 3 races this season at tracks that were less than 1.0 mile in length. The tracks within this sample include Martinsville, Rockingham, and Bristol. While Iowa has some differences to each of those venues, it is important to evaluate more recent performances of drivers/teams at true short tracks. With that said, take a look below to see how the O’Reilly Series’ regulars have performed this season at tracks less than 1.0 mile in length.
| Driver | Races Run | Avg. Driver Rating | Avg. Running Pos. | Avg. Finishing Pos. |
|---|
| Justin Allgaier | 3 | 126.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Corey Day | 3 | 108.7 | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| Brent Crews | 3 | 104.4 | 8.0 | 13.0 |
| Sheldon Creed | 3 | 104.3 | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| William Sawalich | 3 | 103.3 | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 99.2 | 8.3 | 13.0 |
| Carson Kvapil | 3 | 96.4 | 10.0 | 12.7 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 3 | 88.4 | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| Sammy Smith | 3 | 86.9 | 12.0 | 9.3 |
| Jesse Love | 3 | 85.8 | 12.3 | 17.0 |
| Taylor Gray | 3 | 84.6 | 13.3 | 10.0 |
| Ryan Sieg | 3 | 83.0 | 13.7 | 9.7 |
| Rajah Caruth | 3 | 82.6 | 13.0 | 14.3 |
| Austin Hill | 3 | 77.6 | 15.0 | 12.7 |
| Jeb Burton | 3 | 75.8 | 17.0 | 21.0 |
| Harrison Burton | 3 | 75.8 | 16.3 | 18.7 |
| Sam Mayer | 3 | 74.1 | 18.3 | 27.0 |
| Brennan Poole | 3 | 72.0 | 18.0 | 15.3 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 3 | 67.4 | 19.7 | 25.0 |
| Dean Thompson | 3 | 63.4 | 22.0 | 19.7 |
| Jeremy Clements | 3 | 58.7 | 22.7 | 25.7 |
| Lavar Scott | 3 | 53.8 | 25.3 | 23.0 |
| Austin Green | 3 | 50.0 | 26.0 | 32.3 |
| Blaine Perkins | 3 | 49.2 | 25.7 | 20.7 |
| Kyle Sieg | 3 | 48.6 | 25.3 | 32.0 |
| Patrick Staropoli | 3 | 46.0 | 25.3 | 25.7 |
| Josh Williams | 3 | 45.5 | 27.7 | 26.7 |
| Josh Bilicki | 3 | 38.5 | 30.7 | 31.3 |
| Ryan Ellis | 3 | 36.9 | 30.3 | 29.3 |
| Garrett Smithley | 3 | 33.3 | 32.0 | 31.3 |
| Joey Gase | 3 | 33.2 | 33.7 | 28.7 |
Practice Observations and Betting Strategy
Over the years, I have kept records of tracks and the different handicapping angles that seemed to be the most reliable for each venue. While I am not a huge believer in making picks off practice speeds, Iowa Speedway is one of those rare venues where practice speeds seem to carry over into the race. For that reason combined with the fact that current betting odds are extremely conservative, I am not placing a lot of early risk prior to Saturday’s on-track sessions. I am hoping that we will be able to uncover some potential dark horses and sharp H2H targets with more conviction from our current thoughts. As a result, I want to avoid locking-in too many wagers because quite frankly, there is just not a lot of value currently from an odds perspective. Therefore, we will make an assertive effort to be patient for better betting opportunities with higher confidence.
Early Targets
Judging by current betting odds, I am not sold on any of the heavy favorites in Allgaier, Chastain, and Mayer. While all 3 drivers have winning upside, I don’t have enough confidence in any of those drivers to warrant pulling the trigger at current odds. Allgaier has struggled at Iowa in recent years, Chastain’s win percentage and overall laps out front is not impressive, and Mayer seems to be overvalued due to his two straight wins, especially when you consider he was only a Top 5 car for most of last year’s race. For those reasons, I am not pulling the trigger on any of those drivers at this time. However, I cannot argue with anyone that would want to take an early stab on those drivers either.
In similar fashion, Brent Crews and Jesse Love are some names that I am tracking going into practice because they are hitting on some handicapping angles. The problem is that neither driver has any real value. In fact, William Sawalich and Taylor Gray are hitting on just as many handicapping angles and getting more significant value. Sawalich has been one of the better drivers in the series on the shorter tracks and won earlier this year at Rockingham. At 25-1 odds, Sawalich has the ROI to warrant immediate consideration. Meanwhile, Gray is one of my favorite H2H targets going into Saturday. Gray was arguably among the fastest drivers in last years’ HyVee Perks 250 but lost a ton of track position on pit road during one of the final pit stops. As a result, I think Gray is sort of flying under the radar this week and can be considered in all formats.
2026 HyVee Perks 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Jesse Love +700 (1 unit)
Taylor Gray +1000 (.5 unit)
William Sawalich +3000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Sammy Smith -105 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
William Sawalich +100 over Rajah Caruth (2 units)
Two Team Parlay
Ross Chastain +330 wins HyVee Perks 250
Carson Kvapil -120 over Brent Crews
Risking 1 unit to win:
+680
