2026 Dollar Tree 301 Betting Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday August 23rd, 2026. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

On Sunday, NASCAR’s best will fire the engines for the running of the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In recent weeks, the Cup Series has competed at several short tracks and the Magic Mile will be the last installment of this recent swing of short track racing. Next week, the Cup Series will conclude the regular season with racing at Daytona International Speedway which is the ultimate wildcard. Therefore in many ways, tomorrow’s return to the Magic Mile is the last traditional oval for drivers like Ryan Preece and Ross Chastain who are hoping to make up a sizable 50 point deficit for the final transfer position, currently owned by Shane Van Gisbergen!

Of course this season’s regular season battle to make the Chase is a bit less dramatic with the new cumulative style points format. To be in a prime position to make a run at a championship, you really need to be in the top half of the top 10 in points or put together a monumental run over the final 10 races of the season. While the points battle will be something to watch moving forward, our focus must turn towards Sunday’s Dollar Tree 301 and finding the best betting opportunities to turn a profit. In recent weeks, we have seen a lot of surprises. Joey Logano has ended his lagging performance by winning 2 of the last 4 races which includes comparable short track venues like North Wilkesboro and Richmond. In that same 4 race stretch, Corey Heim delivered another upset style victory at Indianapolis and Ty Gibbs captured his 2nd short track victory of the season at Iowa which also has some similarities to Loudon.

Needless to say, those names do not include the likes of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, and many more of the most prestigious short track drivers in the Cup Series. I point out that fact because these races are seemingly getting harder and harder to predict on a week to week basis. Luckily, New Hampshire has typically been a strong handicapping venue for bettors because track history and recent performance data usually align to point to clear betting targets who are among the elite talents at this uniquely flat one-mile layout. While track position and cautions are always a key element towards racing at New Hampshire, we also know there is a relatively small list of truly elite drivers at New Hampshire and that is something I will hang my hat on with every trip to the Magic Mile!

New Hampshire – Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at New Hampshire.
• Brad Keselowski (2), Christopher Bell (2), Joey Logano (2), and Ryan Blaney are the only other former winners at New Hampshire.
• Christopher Bell has won 2 of the last 4 races at New Hampshire.
• Josh Berry has finished 2nd and 3rd in both career starts at New Hampshire.
• Joey Logano has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at New Hampshire.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 6th in 2 of the last 3 races at New Hampshire.
• Kyle Larson has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 5 races at New Hampshire.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 7th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at New Hampshire.
• Ross Chastain has finished in the Top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at New Hampshire.
• Chris Buescher has finished 15th or worse in 11 of 12 career starts at New Hampshire.
• Ty Gibbs best finish is 16th in 3 career starts at New Hampshire.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in each of the last 4 races at New Hampshire.
• Toyota drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at New Hampshire.
• The race winner has started from the Top 5 qualifying positions in each of the last 4 races at New Hampshire.

Performance Data

Since the Cup Series has visited so many short tracks in recent weeks, I believe bettors should pay close attention to our dynamic averages. These stats are self-explanatory in terms of recent performance at similar venues. Notice how both Team Penske standouts Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are ranked in the top two spots which is sort of a momentum shift from earlier in the season when the Toyotas were consistently producing the most speed on the short tracks. While all 4 Joe Gibbs Racing drivers maintain the 3-6 spots and are still producing great speed, it is noteworthy that they no longer have the big advantage that we witnessed earlier this year. Also take note of the struggles from organizations like Hendrick Motorsports and RFK Racing as you are looking through this list!

Practice and Qualifying Recap

At the end of Saturday’s on-track sessions, Tyler Reddick emerged as the fastest guy in town after winning the pole for the Dollar Tree 301 with a speed of 131.094mph. While the pole is Reddick’s 4th of the season, it was also his first in his career at New Hampshire. Josh Berry, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and SVG rounded out the top 5 in qualifying times with many big names in close proximity including Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson who all qualified in the top 10 positions. Overall, there were not too many huge surprises from qualifying. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Joey Logano qualified down in the 21st position following his blistering performances in recent weeks. Chase Elliott was also another disappointing development with a dismal 29th place qualifying effort.

Prior to qualifying, I thought we had a decent opportunity to gauge potential race-speed in practice. I am not even going to mention single lap speeds because it is irrelevant at a place like New Hampshire where long-run speed is the most prominent indicator of success. The drivers that appeared to have the best long-run speed included the likes of Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and Bubba Wallace. Blaney and Larson ranked 1-2 in the best 15, 20, and 25 consecutive lap categories. Meanwhile, Wallace did not fire off as well as many other competitors but was consistently laying down some of the fastest laps towards the end of practice on older tires. William Byron, Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano all appeared to be very close to the top in speed as well. Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick had relatively subpar practice sessions despite the fact Reddick made up for it in qualifying. Additionally, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Carson Hocevar were among the notable names that struggled quite a bit throughout the entire practice session.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets going into Sunday, I still believe Christopher Bell is the best outright talent at New Hampshire Motor Speedway despite the somewhat unimpressive practice session on Saturday. Bell bounced back with 6th place qualifying effort and has proven to be the best driver at New Hampshire for the last several years. For that reason, Bell enters the weekend at the #1 spot in my handicapping rankings. Behind Bell, I think it is a bigger guessing game. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano are the most logical options based on every handicapping metric. For some reason, Blaney has swelled to a huge betting favorite. While I like his chances, I can’t reconcile the justification for his current betting odds. Instead, I would pivot to Denny Hamlin as the 2nd best betting option behind Bell.

In case you are wondering about Josh Berry as a potential dark horse, Berry is currently listed at lower odds than Joey Logano, William Byron, and Ty Gibbs among others. Therefore, Berry’s betting value has been completely saturated. In terms of outright betting value based on current betting odds and projected ceilings, Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher have the highest value. I thought Wallace was a top 3 car in practice and he is getting serious value. Likewise, Buescher is another driver that does not have the best New Hampshire resume but has shown terrific speed thus far on the weekend. Both drivers are getting so much value that I consider them ideal targets in both H2H and prop bet formats. If you are looking for deep fantasy targets, Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Austin Dillon are some low-price names that should return value from their poor starting positions on Sunday!

Draftkings 2026 Dollar Tree Optimal Lineup

2026 Dollar Tree 301 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +550 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +700 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +1200 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -145 over Austin Cindric (3 units)
Ross Chastain -110 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)
Kyle Larson -150 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
SVG +175 finishes Top 10 (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Ryan Blaney +350 wins Dollar Tree 301
Bubba Wallace +170 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +1150