2015 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 6th, 7:20PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday the Sprint Cup Series will go racing in the roots of the south at Darlington Raceway in the Bojangles Southern 500. Tomorrow’s race will feature a throwback ensemble with old school paint schemes in honor of NASCAR’s prestigious stars of the past. Fittingly Darlington is one of the most respected tracks on circuit and fits into everything that can be defined as “old school.” The track “Too Tough To Tame” is the ultimate driver’s test that features gritty hard-nosed racing in the heart of the south where the roots of NASCAR were established. Tonight we go racing at one of the most beloved and exciting tracks in NASCAR, old school style at Darlington Raceway. Find out our thoughts and 2015 Bojangles Southern 500 race picks in our full handicapping preview!
After a 12 year hiatus, Darlington’s Southern 500 has returned to its original Labor Day weekend venue and accompanying this year’s race is a throwback theme that just may be the new normal for Darlington races. While a lot of time will be given to honoring some of the great paint schemes of the past, tomorrow’s race will give an opportunity for a driver to etch their current colors into the record books. In just the last 10 years some of NASCAR’s greatest drivers have prevailed at this fickle little track including the likes of Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon. Tonight after 500 miles of racing a new name will be placed onto that prestigious list.
From breaking down our expectations, we know a couple of the important things such as the Kentucky aero package that is being run tonight, the change in the time of the year that this race will take place with more heat in the air, among other tangibles that are bound to play a factor. However, the one thing that has been certain thus far throughout practices is that everything is uncertain. The JGR cars easily entered this week’s race as soon to be favorites due to their recent momentum and success at Kentucky in the same aero package. Instead we got a mixed array of speed from both practice sessions on Friday. Both Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle had their two best practices of the season. Could one of those drivers break out of their slump and race up front? Biffle is the last guy to win back to back races at Darlington (2005-2006) so he knows how to get around the 1.25 mile track. However, this was the first time in ages that a Roush-Fenway machine looked really strong at a track over 1 mile in length.
To further mix up the expectations, Carl Edwards was the only JGR driver to crack the top 10 in final practice. Ironically, Edwards is the only driver from the JGR camp that does not have a Darlington win to his resume. Therefore, I am not sure if practices gave us any clear indication of what to expect on Sunday. Of course practices can be misleading often times too especially when you have a night race with practices that are occurring in the daytime with drivers on different qualifying mock runs along with other outliers. Still even with that being said, it is hard to explain the diversity that was on top of the leader boards after each practice on Friday. If nothing else, we should see some great racing once the green flag drops at 7:20PM EST
In terms of what to expect, you have a couple of guys that you just know should run well. The two top guys on that list should be Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. Harvick dominated this race one year ago in route to a win by leading 238 of the 374 laps scheduled. Not only did Harvick qualify up front (3rd) but he also posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. Therefore the #4 car should be one of those favorites that stays in contention throughout the night. Also, add Denny Hamlin to that list. Hamlin has the JGR momentum that we expected to shine coming into this weekend and he owns the best average finish among active drivers with a 6.89 average finish through 9 career starts. After a solid qualifying effort as well (6th), do not expect the #11 to lose sight of the front barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Outside of your favorites, I really expect guys like Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano to also contend at the front. Keselowski won the pole for tonight’s race and the Penske Racing cars were pretty strong back at Kentucky. Logano has an awful resume at Darlington in terms of finishing positions but I am not convinced that he will not be a factor once the green flag drops. The #22 team and driver are performing at the best level they ever have and I think Logano is finally starting to emerge as the superstar we expected early in his career.
If you are looking for a few sleepers, consider guys like Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, and Jeff Gordon to run well. I specifically like Larson’s driving style at a place like Darlington where you are constantly battling the track every lap as the youngster seems to shine in those types of circumstances. Truex is another guy that could sneak into contention tonight. The #78 looked really good on long runs and showed some raw race speed and it is easy to remember how dominate this team was just a few months ago during the early summer stretch.
Jeff Gordon would be a fan favorite to close out this throwback weekend with a victory. How great would it be to see Gordon win in his final Darlington start? Obviously it sounds like a bit of a reach considering the #24 team’s struggles this year. However, this is another team that run really well back at Kentucky and who can deny credibility to Gordon’s 7 wins at Darlington? I actually believe Gordon could be a legitimate long shot for tomorrow’s victory and excellent H2H option in selective matchups. Of course all these things could change once the sun drops tonight and conditions change which is the beauty of NASCAR racing. However, we feel we have a solid opportunity for another big night. Take a look at our 2015 Bojangles’ Southern 500 race picks!
2015 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit): early forums pick, 2010 winner, leads all active drivers with 6.89 average finishing position, 3rd fastest 10 lap average in final practice, starting 6th
Jeff Gordon +1200 (1 unit): finished 7th or better in 9 of last 11 starts at Darlington, 7 time winner, strong in practices, starting 5th
Kyle Larson +3500 (.5 unit): 8th place finish in 2014 as a rookie, 6th fastest 10 lap average in final practice, one of those tracks that seems to fit his driving style, look for the #42 to move up on long runs
Tony Stewart +5000 (.5 unit): best practices of the year with serious speed, perhaps the 3 time champion can have a throwback night, 2nd fastest 10 lap average in practice, starting 17th
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick +390 wins Bojangles Southern 500
Kyle Larson -130 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1150
H2H Matchups and Props
Denny Hamlin -125 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
