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2019 Advance Auto Parts Clash Preview

2019 Advance Auto Parts Clash Preview

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday February 10th, 2019 3:00PM EST
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

On Sunday, NASCAR returns to the high banks of Daytona International Speedway for the opening race of the season in the Advance Auto Parts Clash. The “Clash” will feature 20 of the most respected names in the Cup Series in a 75 lap exhibition race to set the tone for the upcoming week of festivities at Daytona including the Gander RV Duels on Thursday followed by the 61st running of the Great American Race on Sunday. Before we begin our preparation for NASCAR’s biggest race, we take this time to provide some insight into Sunday’s exciting Clash at Daytona and begin preparations for another profitable betting year in the world of NASCAR.

Last year, I nailed all 4 Cup Series restrictor plate races which helped tremendously in one of the toughest seasons in recent memory for NASCAR betting. Nothing beats restrictor plate racing, for the sports bettor, and nothing beats restrictor plate racing betting odds. As I am excited to get the season started and hopefully nail another big winner, I will be in full spectator mode for Sunday’s Clash at Daytona. I have never been a fan of too much early action at the start of the season and the Clash has typically failed to produce the big payouts like we see in the points races. In the last 10 Clashes at Daytona, Kevin Harvick has won 3 times, Denny Hamlin has won twice, and the likes of Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski have all captured a victory.

Previous Clash Winners

Year Date No. Driver Team Manufacturer Laps Miles (KM) Average Speed (MPH)
1979 February 11 28 Buddy Baker Ranier-Lundy Oldsmobile 20 50 (80.467) 194.384
1980 February 10 2 Dale Earnhardt Osterlund Racing Oldsmobile 20 50 (80.467) 191.693
1981 February 8 11 Darrell Waltrip Junior Johnson & Associates Buick 20 50 (80.467) 189.076
1982 February 7 88 Bobby Allison DiGard Motorsports Buick 20 50 (80.467) 191.693
1983 February 14 75 Neil Bonnett RahMoc Enterprises Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 192.513
1984 February 9 12 Neil Bonnett Junior Johnson & Associates Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 195.926
1985 February 10 44 Terry Labonte Hagan Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 195.865
1986 February 8 3 Dale Earnhardt Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 195.865
1987 February 8 9 Bill Elliott Melling Racing Ford 20 50 (80.467) 197.802
1988 February 7 3 Dale Earnhardt Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 191.489
1989 February 12 25 Ken Schrader Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 192.926
1990 February 11 25 Ken Schrader Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 192.308
1991 February 10 3 Dale Earnhardt Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 189.474
1992 February 8 15 Geoff Bodine Bud Moore Engineering Ford 20 50 (80.467) 189.076
1993 February 7 3 Dale Earnhardt Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 186.916
1994 February 13 24 Jeff Gordon Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 188.877
1995 February 12 3 Dale Earnhardt Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 188.482
1996 February 11 88 Dale Jarrett Robert Yates Racing Ford 20 50 (80.467) 184.995
1997 February 9 24 Jeff Gordon Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 20 50 (80.467) 185.376
1998 February 8 2 Rusty Wallace Penske Racing Ford 25 62.5 (100.584) 178.998
1999 February 7 6 Mark Martin Roush Racing Ford 25 62.5 (100.584) 181.745
2000 February 13 88 Dale Jarrett Robert Yates Racing Ford 25 62.5 (100.584) 182.334
2001 February 11 20 Tony Stewart Joe Gibbs Racing Pontiac 70 175 (281.635) 181.036
2002 February 10 20 Tony Stewart Joe Gibbs Racing Pontiac 70 175 (281.635) 181.295
2003 February 8 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Dale Earnhardt, Inc. Chevrolet 70 175 (281.635) 180.827
2004 February 7 88 Dale Jarrett Robert Yates Racing Ford 70 175 (281.635) 150.826
2005 February 12 48 Jimmie Johnson Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 70 175 (281.635) 181.399
2006 February 12 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing Chevrolet 72* 180 (289.681) 153.627
2007 February 10 20 Tony Stewart Joe Gibbs Racing Chevrolet 70 175 (281.635) 166.195
2008 February 9 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet 70 175 (281.635) 140.751
2009 February 7 29 Kevin Harvick Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 78* 195 (313.822) 127.243
2010 February 6 29 Kevin Harvick Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 76* 190 (305.775) 144.742
2011 February 12 22 Kurt Busch Penske Racing Dodge 75 187.5 (301.752) 153.584
2012 February 18 18 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 82* 205 (329.915) 124.096
2013 February 16 29 Kevin Harvick Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet 75 187.5 (301.752) 177.538
2014 February 15 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 75 187.5 (301.752) 143.16
2015 February 14 20 Matt Kenseth Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 75 187.5 (301.752) 135.569
2016 February 13 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota 79* 197.5 (317.845) 128.432
2017 February 19 22 Joey Logano Team Penske Ford 75 187.5 (301.752) 143.831
2018 February 11 2 Brad Keselowski Team Penske Ford 75 187.5 (301.752) 169.641

Judging by the list of previous winners, they’re truly no surprises or victorious underdogs in recent years. Granted this race typically provides an All-Star type lineup and when you combine that factor along with the smaller field (20), the odds are simply not nearly as advantageous as they will be next Sunday when the cars roll off for the Daytona 500. Therefore, I do not see the biggest upside in betting Advance Auto Parts Clash unless you are just tossing some throwaway dollars towards it for engaging action. If that happens to be your prerogative, let’s take a moment to discuss the best betting options for Sunday’s thriller.

With a similar rules package still in effect for this week’s racing at Daytona, we do not have to worry yet about the imminent rules package effects that will be bestowed on the competition in the weeks to come. For now, my personal opinions are based off the remnants of the existing package and the plate racing talents in this year’s Clash. If you plan on betting NASCAR this season, go ahead and get signed up with 5Dimes for the best online odds in the business.

Advance Auto Parts Clash  
Brad Keselowski 725
Kevin Harvick 750
Joey Logano 750
Denny Hamlin 1000
Chase Elliott 1100
Ryan Blaney 1200
Aric Almirola 1250
Clint Bowyer 1250
Kyle Busch 1300
Kurt Busch 1700
Daniel Suarez 1850
Martin Truex Jr 2100
Jimmie Johnson 2500
Alex Bowman 2650
Erik Jones 2650
Kyle Larson 2750
Austin Dillon 3000
Ryan Newman 3300
Paul Menard 3700
Jamie McMurray 3700

The first name that jumps off the list is Mr. Rowdy Busch at 13-1 odds. Busch is not exactly an overly dominate force on the plate tracks but he can get the job done. The #18 has been hit or miss at most plate races throughout his career. Still out of the 5 victories in plate events in his career, 4 have come at Daytona by way of the 2008 Coke Zero 400, 2012 Clash, and 3 wins in the duel qualifying races for the Daytona 500. Busch has proved the uncanny ability to win at every track throughout every style of racing. For a driver that scored 8 wins in 2018 and has been among the best in the sport for the last several years, the 13-1 odds bring some value for one of Sunday’s biggest threats.

Obviously Denny Hamlin (3-time Clash winner), Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski are deserving favorites as the top plate drivers in the sport. Hamlin and Harvick have won this event 3 times with 5 of those combined victories coming in the last 10 races. Hamlin actually set a record in 2017 by leading the most laps (48) ever in the Clash but failed to get the victory. Needless to say, the argument is solid for any of those drivers chances this Sunday. From purely an odds perspective, I like the big number for both Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson. Plate racing is not exactly among neither of Bowman or Larson’s strengths. However, they are both still good enough to get the job done especially if things get bunched up and wild in the closing laps. Bowman is a guy that I believe will exceed expectations this year and he drove a great race in this event in 2017 when he finished 3rd. Meanwhile, Larson simply has too much talent to be listed at near 25-1 despite his disdain for this type of racing. If I was going to throw out a few long shots, my money would be on those two drivers. Good luck and we will see you back next week when our official picks start with the Daytona 500!