Phoenix Recap: Observations for the upcoming weeks
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
I don’t know about everyone else but I truly enjoyed Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in Phoenix. We witnessed good racing, passing for the lead, wild and crazy restarts, mild GoodYear tire concerns, and everything you could ask for throughout the day. At the end of the day, Kyle Busch recorded win #199 among NASCAR’s top 3 touring series capping off the weekend sweep between the Xfinity and Cup Series’ races. NASCAR’s short track package appears to have all the goodies to provide great racing and we can only hope the package for tracks over 1 mile in length gets closer to producing the type of quality racing we witnessed on Sunday. With Phoenix in the rearview, let’s take a moment to discuss some trends and predictions for the upcoming weeks!
Team Penske still impressive
Team Penske failed to score their 3rd straight victory last week at ISM Raceway. However, Ryan Blaney gave it everything he had and impressed a lot of people by staying ahead of Kyle Busch way longer than expected in the closing laps. After Keselowski’s victory at Atlanta, Logano’s win at Las Vegas, Blaney was the 3rd driver in the last 3 weeks that was in position for a victory in the closing laps at ISM Raceway. At this point, it is clear that those cars have found some speed. Whether they have learned something with this new package or simply found speed over the offseason, Team Penske is bringing fast cars to the track every week among all their race teams.
If you consider Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski’s recent success in Fontana the last several years, those drivers will have some added value again this week. Logano has recorded 3 straight top 5 finishes at Auto Club Speedway while Keselowski has produced 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts at Auto Club Speedway including a victory in 2015. Also, let’s not leave out Blaney since he has shown winning speed both at Atlanta and last week in Phoenix. Blaney has posted 9th and 8th place finishes at Auto Club Speedway over the last two years. With the momentum this teams has, Blaney will likely provide some strong upside for match-ups and potentially the outright win this week. Either way you slice it, Team Penske remains the hottest team in the Cup Series.
Martin Truex Jr will win soon
Over the last 50 laps on Sunday’s race, we witnessed a great battle for the win between Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch. However, Martin Truex’s run to the front in the closing laps was among the most impressive feats of the day. On the final restart, Truex was 10th before he started moving forward. With 50 laps to go, Truex was 6 seconds behind the leaders. Now I know some teams were in fuel conservation mode but Truex was easily the fastest car on the track throughout that final run to the checkered. By the time the checkered flag waves, Truex’s gap to Busch had been trimmed to 1.259 seconds capping off an impressive run throughout the final stage to capture a runner-up finish.
What we witnessed on Sunday, was vintage Martin Truex Jr. The #19 was among the best cars throughout the day on the long run and the team/driver got better as the race progressed. We saw the same thing back at Atlanta when the #19 finished 4th. Then at Las Vegas, Truex and the team struggled throughout the entire weekend in practices. Despite an ill-handling car and several challenges, they were still fast in race trim and got better as the afternoon progressed to bring home an 8th place finish. In my opinion, that is impressive results for crew chief Cole Pearn and Truex who both transitioned to a new team this year with JGR. Despite the transition, they have not lost that long run speed and that is something that is going to shine under this new package. I don’t know exactly win or where Truex will get his first win with JGR. However, I would be willing to bet that it will be relatively soon.
Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson: Where art thou?
With the spotlight shining bright on the youth in NASCAR, it’s hard to accept NASCAR’s most talented young drivers in Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson continue to struggle. I can easily chalk up their struggles towards Chevrolets struggles and provide some justification in that fact. However, we are talking about elite driving talents in both Elliott and Larson that should be able to overcome some degree of manufacturer disadvantage to still make their presence felt. Unfortunately that has not been the case for either driver. Elliott has just one top 10 finish this season coming from a 9th place finish at Vegas. However, the majority of Elliott’s laps have been run outside the top 10 and the #9 team has yet to lead a lap this season.
Kyle Larson has been better in terms of performance. Larson has recorded two top 10 finishes this season including a season best 6th place finish last Sunday in Phoenix. After a somewhat rough afternoon, Larson found some speed late when conditions were the slickest they had been all day. However, Larson is still not performing at the level we expect from the #42 team. I know the added downforce in this new rules package does not exactly help Larson’s driving style. Larson’s talent really shines in low grip/slick conditions. Still that is not an excuse but just an added opinion. Overall, the #42 team simply is not performing to the level they should. In fact, they are being outperformed on a near weekly basis by teammate Kurt Busch. I do not have an exact explanation of why these teams are struggling but I think it is several factors all working together. Either way, Elliott and Larson need to get things turned around because I think everyone would like to see both drivers in contention more frequently.
