Texas recap: Food City 500 Preview

by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After two overwhelmingly unfortunate races on Friday and Saturday, Denny Hamlin’s victory in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 snapped a run of bad luck with a cash at nearly 30-1 odds. From a betting standpoint, it was nice to get back the losses and yield a small profit following a wild weekend at Texas. However, this racing package is still extremely difficult to predict which was obvious throughout 500 miles on Sunday. We take a moment to reflect on Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, discuss things to keep in mind for the Cup Series’ return to Texas in November, and a take an early look at next week’s races at Bristol Motor Speedway.

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Recap

I have not made any attempt to hide my disdain for the new racing package for the tracks over 1 mile in length. The cars are slower and do not have enough horsepower to complete passes. The package has produced some of the results NASCAR intended. It has kept the competition closer together, provided closer racing, and created more parity throughout the field. However, those progress points are mostly smoke and mirrors. At a track like Texas with minimal tire wear, cars just cannot drive away from one another. Drafting allows drivers to make runs at their competitor’s bumper but the lack of horsepower makes it extremely difficult to complete a pass. As a result, it is nearly impossible to drive through the field, even with the fastest car, because each successful pass cost so much valuable time in relation to the leaders.

At tracks like Atlanta and Auto Club Speedway, we could rely on significant tire wear to mix things up between the guys with short run and long run speed. The drop off in lap times could erase some of the difficult it took to complete a pass because there was simply more variance in the lap times. At Texas, we learned everyone is almost identical in terms of “speed.” Sure we have a few teams that are performing better than others and have more outright speed which is expected. Additionally, drivers like Kyle Busch and Joey Logano are still able to showcase their talent based on their sheer ability to sustain momentum while managing traffic and completing passes. However, this race on Sunday was all about track position. At certain moments of the race, the following drivers appeared they were going to drive off into the sunset for a victory: Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, and Denny Hamlin. The undeniable truth is that those cars were fast but ultimately benefited from track position during their runs at the front of the field. Once a driver was able to get the lead, it was nearly impossible to pass them and that is a direct result in the lack of horsepower with this new package.

Handicapping Notes for Texas

From a handicapping standpoint, Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 played out much like a restrictor plate race which ironically is what this new package is with “tapered spacers.” Luckily some of the odds before Sunday’s green flag was rather generous. The majority of the drivers that led laps in Sunday’s race like Johnson, Elliott, Blaney, Jones, and Denny Hamlin were all 15-1 or better in terms of odds. That is good news for when the series returns this November but I don’t think it helps the handicapping at any level. The Truck and Xfinity Series races were better tailored for “true” handicapping. This Cup Series race was praying for your driver to win the track position battle to get into position for a chance at victory.

When the Cup Series returns in November, I will likely approach this race with a much bigger “restrictor plate” mentality. If you have not followed my restrictor plate philosophy before, that usually entails a low risk/high reward strategy. Breaking down bets into .5 and .75 unit bets, taking more drivers because ultimately more drivers have a chance of winning, and making sure we maintain sufficient ROI for the risk associated with this style of racing. In fact, I may even avoid H2H match-ups all together unless something changes with the package. I am just not sure if it makes enough sense to place several units on H2H match-ups where the value could be potentially erased with a single strategic call for track position. So unless something changes, this will be a low risk boom or bust type race in November.

Food City 500 at Bristol Early Discussion

As we close the door on Texas, it is only right to look forward to Bristol. Bristol Motor Speedway is personally my favorite track as a fan of the sport and for once this year’s rules changes may actually help the racing at Thunder Valley. Since Bristol is a half-mile bullring, Cup Series teams will have all 750 horsepower and will not have any of the aero ducts associated with speedway racing similar to the 2018 rules package. The good news is that teams will still use the bigger spoiler and changes to the front splitter which is expected to increase the speed around the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” As a result, we should see speeds approaching lap record times and a race that has more of the old school feel which will hopefully be refreshing from what we have seen thus far in 2019.

As we approach the Food City 500 weekend, I don’t think we can turn our heads away from Kyle Busch. I avoided Busch in Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 primarily because of the parity in speed shown across the competition. This week NASCAR’s hottest driver returns to his best venue. Rowdy has amassed 21 victories in Thunder Valley including 7 in the Cup Series. Busch has won 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol including last year’s Food City 500. With the #18 team’s current momentum and expected conditions on Sunday, Busch would easily jump to the top of everyone’s rankings for Bristol.

Obviously Busch is the easy choice for Sunday but let’s talk about a few drivers that deserve some respect alongside Rowdy when it comes to Bristol. For starters, Kyle Larson actually has a better driver rating that Kyle Busch over the last 5 Bristol races. Larson has posted a 113.2 driver rating compared to Busch’s 108.2 and both drivers nearly mirror each other in terms of fastest laps/lead laps. I understanding picking Larson has typically been like throwing money into the fire. However, I have always admired his ability for getting around Bristol Motor Speedway. If the speeds increase slightly and these cars are on edge for Sunday’s 500 lap race, Larson will move up even higher on my radar.

Aside from the top two favorites, I have a couple other guys that I will be intrigued to see where their odds fall throughout the week. Erik Jones has been surprisingly strong at Bristol in recent races including top 5 finishes in 2 of the last 3. Behind Busch and Larson, Erik Jones has led more laps than any other driver in the series throughout the last 5 races at Bristol which is really impressive if you consider Jones has just 4 career starts in Thunder Valley. I will also keep my eyes on Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr who are both extremely underrated drivers at Bristol. I nailed a 20-1 Top 3 prop bet on Stenhouse in 2016 which I still remember vividly. At the time, I was impressed at how Stenhouse charged the corners to get “position” during race trim. Once Stenhouse gained position, he was usually able to complete the pass. It is a boom or bust mentality for short track racing but that is exactly the purpose of prop bets.

Likewise, Alex Bowman will likely be a guy worth keeping on your radar for H2H purposes. Bowman has struggled in recent weeks and I will be the first to prematurely say that if something does not change; his contract will not be renewed after 2020. The good news for Bowman is that he returns to a venue where he posted two top 10 finishes in 2018. The majority of Bowman’s quality runs typically come on the short tracks when you compare his career body of work. Therefore if he gets paired against another low-tier driver, Bowman could provide some early value.

Food City 500 Betting and Fantasy Links

Bristol Loop Data

Past Winners at Bristol