2023 Alsco 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 27th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage early Saturday for the running of the Alsco 300 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Through 11 races this season, John Hunter Nemechek (2 wins) holds a 1 point lead over Austin Hill (3 wins) in the points standings. Interestingly, Nemechek and Hill are the only drivers with multiple wins this season. In fact, the last 8 Xfinity Series races have been won by 8 different drivers. On Saturday, the competition will heat up as both Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs step down from the Cup Series in an attempt to put another new face in victory lane for the first time this season.

Earlier today, Justin Allgaier added his name to the list of potential first-time season winners going into Saturday. Allgaier captured the 8th pole of his career by posting a fast lap of 181.172mph which was considerably faster than the rest of the competition. Earlier this year, Allgaier finished 2nd to Austin Hill at Las Vegas which is the only 1.5 mile speedway the series has competed on this season. Unlike the Truck Series that has already competed 4 times on 1.5 mile ovals, Saturday’s Alsco 300 will be just the 2nd such event at a 1.5 mile speedway for both Xfinity and Cup Series.

The reason I make that comment is because we don’t believe we have seen enough racing on the 1.5 mile ovals to yield in-season performance trends. Therefore, this week’s handicapping method will be a mixture of outright handicapping drivers/equipment, looking at historical results, and also discussing how teams appeared in Friday’s lone practice session. Fortunately, there are several drivers worthy of winning this Alsco 300 and that has kept odds relatively stable. As a result, I am expecting some pretty solid betting opportunities for Saturday’s return to action!

Xfinity Series – Charlotte Fast Facts

• Kyle Busch has the most wins (9) all-time at Charlotte. Busch has finished in the top 5 in 19 of 26 starts at Charlotte.
• Josh Berry (2022) and Ty Gibbs (2021) are the only other former winners in Saturday’s Alsco 300.
• Ty Gibbs has finished 1st and 2nd in two career starts at Charlotte.
• Sam Mayer won the pole and finished 3rd in last year’s first career start at Charlotte.
• Austin Hill’s best finish at Charlotte is 14th in 3 career starts.
• Brandon Jones’ best finish at Charlotte is 7th in 9 career starts.
• The eventual race winner has started from the front two rows in 13 of the last 16 races at Charlotte.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in the last 7 Xfinity Series races at Charlotte.

Practice Observations

Unfortunately, practice on Friday did not yield any surprise stories. Both John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Allgaier who qualified on the first row were among the class of the competition. Allgaier appeared to fire off better but Nemechek had some serious speed that was reflective of race speed. Within apparent striking distance included guys like Cole Custer and Ty Gibbs. I thought Custer’s long run speed was impressive but rarely do we get super long runs at Charlotte. Obviously I would not write off Kyle Busch’s chances to win on Saturday but from a speed standpoint, the #10 was not very impressive on the stopwatch. I would also give slight shout outs to Josh Berry and Carson Hocevar. Both drivers looked better in practice than their qualifying efforts showed. Therefore, both drivers have some DFS and H2H value going into Saturday.

Betting Targets

Based on how strong the JGR cars have been this season in Xfinity Series competition, I think John Hunter Nemechek is the clear favorite going into Charlotte especially off a confidence building battle with Kyle Larson back at Darlington in the last race. Despite the low number in terms of betting odds, I think Nemechek is a high-confident pick. Teammate Ty Gibbs will be in similar JGR equipment and should be alongside Allgaier with the best duo to knock off Nemechek. Kyle Busch is the overall favorite but I don’t think he has the speed to get it done this week.

For H2H options, I really like Cole Custer to shine on Saturday. As stated earlier, Custer had excellent long run speed and the #00 team has been progressing following a slow start to the year. I think Custer has excellent upside in match-up formats and may be worth a dark horse consideration for the win as well. Other H2H options among the top tier drivers includes Josh Berry and Daniel Hemric may be among the drivers poised to outrun their expectations. For deeper H2H options, I believe Carson Hocevar will pay dividends in match-ups. Hocevar has been really impressive in his limited time in Xfinity Series competition and I am a believer in his talent. As a lower-tier driver, Hocevar likely beats all competition around him.

2023 Draftkings Alsco 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Alsco 400 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +400 (1.5 unit)
Cole Custer +700 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +1200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Josh Berry -115 over Sammy Smith (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -110 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Chandler Smith -110 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Chandler Smith +800 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)