2025 BetMGM 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday May 24th, 2025. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: CW

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returns to action, following a two-week hiatus, for the running of the BetMGM 300 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Through 12 races this season, Justin Allgaier leads the Xfinity Series points standings by a relatively wide margin. Allgaier captured back to back wins at Las Vegas and Homestead in March and has posted top 5 finishes in 8 of 12 races thus far. Allgaier has easily been the most consistent front-runner this season among the Xfinity Series’ full-time competitors but for Saturday’s BetMGM 300 there will be several additional threats that will be joining from the Cup Series to spice up the action!

In recent weeks, Kyle Larson has earned victories in 2 of the last 4 races in the Xfinity Series. While Larson will be preparing for the Indy 500 this weekend, there will be several big name Cup Series stars that will be competing on Saturday for a chance at victory. The BetMGM 300 entry list features Cup Series talents William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Austin Dillon who will all be competing in top equipment. When we combine those big talents with the rest of the Xfinity Series full-time drivers, there are legitimately 10-12 drivers that have the talent to win Saturday’s BetMGM 300.

As a result, I believe bettors will have to approach this race relatively cautiously especially before on-track activities which will not take place until Saturday morning with practice and qualifying. With so many big talents in the field, I would not be surprised to see a lot of “comers and goers” throughout 300 miles of racing. For those reasons, I believe we have to be relatively conservative with our betting approach to Saturday. We will obviously consider handicapping angles like track history and driver trends. However, we will also examine how drivers/teams have performed at other 1.5 mile venues to help build our handicapping baseline!

Charlotte – Xfinity Notes

• Austin Dillon has two victories at Charlotte in Xfinity Series competition which is the most among drivers competing on Saturday. *Dillon also has a 2017 Coca Cola 600 win at Charlotte in Cup Series competition.
• Justin Allgaier (2023) is the only other driver in the field with a prior win at Charlotte.
• Justin Allgaier has led at least 40 laps in each of the last 3 races at Charlotte and posted an average driver rating above 100 in each of those races.
• Sam Mayer has posted finishes of 4th or better in 2 of 3 career starts at Charlotte.
• Austin Hill has finished 4th or better in all 3 races this season at non-drafting 1.5 mile venues.
• Jesse Love has finished 7th or better in all 3 races this season at non-drafting 1.5 mile venues.
• Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, Austin Hill, and Connor Zilisch are the only drivers to average a 100+ driver rating at the non-drafting 1.5 mile venues this season.
• Brandon Jones has posted a 96.0 average driver rating this season at the non-drafting 1.5 mile venues.
• Chase Briscoe has just one top 10 finish in 4 career starts at Charlotte.
• Christian Eckes has produced a mere 55.0 average driver rating at the non-drafting 1.5 mile venues.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 10 of 12 races this season in Xfinity Series competition.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 8 of the last 9 races at Charlotte.

Betting Targets

Without question, Justin Allgaier deserves the top handicapping spot going into Saturday despite the Cup Series stars that will be competing. Allgaier has posted phenomenal performance metrics at the 1.5 mile venues this season which included wins at both Las Vegas and Homestead. From a betting standpoint, I already have exposure to Allgaier in a parlay that is still live thanks to Corey Heim’s Truck Series win on Friday. As a result, I will likely not add any more exposure to Allgaier unless it is in H2H formats. The real question is who deserves the betting attention behind Allgaier? Chase Briscoe is a very likely candidate due to talent combined with the fact he is stepping into one of the best cars in the series. However, I personally hate the current price tag on Briscoe which will likely keep him off my betting card.

Likewise, I don’t like the price tag on William Byron either. Byron is obviously insanely talented and in top-notch equipment. However, Byron has also failed to win in Xfinity Series competition since joining the Cup Series which includes 8 starts for Hendrick Motorsports. For those reasons, I am looking deeper into the field for potential dark horses and outright betting value. The drivers that I believe fit that description include the likes of Austin Hill, Sam Mayer, and Austin Dillon. Both Hill and Mayer have been really strong throughout the season at the 1.5 mile venues and Mayer has solid stats at Charlotte as an extra superlative. Meanwhile, Dillon is getting the best odds of everyone that I have previously mentioned and Dillon may be the best dark horse on the board. Dillon has always been very good at Charlotte and I would add that the Richard Childress Racing cars have been exceptional this season at the 1.5 mile venues. As a result, Dillon is one of my sharpest leans going into Saturday that could warrant early betting consideration in all formats.

Practice Observations – Final Thoughts

As I expected, Justin Allgaier remained extremely stout in practice Saturday morning at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Allgaier posted the best overall average time and led almost every practice metric with the best 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap consecutive average category solidifying last night’s pick as Allgaier the top handicapping option. Behind ALlgaier, Sheldon Creed, William Byron, Connor Zilisch, and Austin Hill were among the names that were consistently fast through all practice metrics. Byron seemed fall off the least of any of the top guys which means he will likely be a factor before everything is said and done. On the other side of the coin, Austin Dillon, Sam Mayer, and Chase Briscoe were among the big names that struggled on the stopwatch. All 3 of those drivers appeared to not have the pace that we expected.

Draftkings 2025 BetMGM 300 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 BetMGM 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Sam Mayer +1100 (.75 unit)
Austin Dillon +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -105 over William Byron (2 units)
Connor Zilisch -145 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Chase Briscoe -120 finishes Top 5 (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Chase Briscoe +425 wins BetMGM 300
Chevrolet +130 wins Coca Cola 600
Risking .75 unit to win: +830